Ripple’s XRP Faces Critical Test at $2.5: Is History Repeating?

XRP is trading at $2.15 after a weekly gain of 12% as analysts eye the $2.5 level, which could determine whether the rally continues or fades away.

Ripple’s XRP is valued at $2.15 at press time, gaining more than 12% over the past seven days. After starting 2026 on a strong note, the focus has shifted to whether it can regain the $2.5 level. This price marks an important technical area that can define the next movement of the stock.

$2.50 Rate Marks Historical Turning Point

The 50-week simple moving average (SMA) has served as a reliable trend marker for XRP. In previous cycles – including 2018, 2022, and 2024 – a loss of this rate has been followed by a change in market direction. On October 10, 2025, XRP again dropped below the 50-week SMA.

Currently, the value of this moving average is close to $2.5, making it an area of ​​interest for many market participants. Analyst Steph Is Crypto noted the importance of this area. Until this level is restored, traders are aware of other serious risks.

“A weekly close above $2.50 will open the door for the bull market to resume,” he said.

In addition, ChartNerdTA shared a long-term comparison between the current setup and XRP’s 2016 structure. During that time, the token made two highs and dropped below the support before starting the big rally in 2017. That move was also accompanied by a reset of the Stochastic RSI, which is often used to test momentum.

According to the chart, XRP shows a similar structure through 2025, including a double top and a recent momentum reset. “The year 2026 could be a landmark year,” ChartNerdTA noted, referring to the repeating nature of the pattern.

📣 $XRP: If history repeats itself, 2026 could be a landmark year and a year for the record books. The most amazing makeup in 2016 right here. pic.twitter.com/AjMVVJTDoS

— 🇬🇧 ChartNerd 📊 (@ChartNerdTA) January 5, 2026

The Market Cycle Suggests the Next Phase of the Movement

The CW introduced a concept based on a repeating four-phase cycle. The chart marks XRP’s entry into Phase 4, which followed a long period of sideways movement. The model sets the first target at the previous high, and the second target at $21.5, based on the Fibonacci retracement of 6.618.

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This same cycle happened between 2014 and 2017, when XRP went through similar phases before the rally. A break above long-term resistance in early 2026 may suggest that the pattern is playing out again.

Meanwhile, CryptoWZRD noted that XRP closed strongly against both USD and BTC pairs. “A hold above $2.10 can provide more,” he said.XRP recently broke above $2.12 on high volume, with exchange balances remaining low.

ETF demand and a drop in exchange supply may support buyers if momentum remains. However, short-term signs point to a downside, and traders are watching closely to see if XRP can stay above major support levels.