The $100K Level Holds the End of the Bitcoin Trend

The $100,000 mark marks where most medium-term owners break even, giving it a strong emotional hold.

Bitcoin (BTC) is testing a critical resistance level near $100,000 this week, a point that some analysts say will determine the next big trend of the commodity.

According to them, the result will determine whether the recent recovery is the start of a new bullish phase or just a break from a long-term decline.

Battle Line $100,000

After five consecutive days of gains, the longest winning streak since early October 2025, Bitcoin surpassed $94,000 on January 6, according to CoinGecko data.

The stock is now up about 7.6% over the past week, but the broader picture remains uncertain. A key metric tracked by on-chain analysts, the average acquisition price of coins that last moved between six and twelve months ago is currently sitting near the $100,000 mark.

As noted by Crypto Dan analyst, Bitcoin price is trading below this level. Past experience shows that if the price stays below this cost base, the overall trend tends to remain negative, with a high chance of further losses.

“Historically, when the price stays below this level, the broader trend leans bearish, and the risk of continuing lower remains high,” the expert wrote.

However, a clear break above $100,000 will signal a major change, as retracing that level has marked changes from bearish to bullish trends. According to Crypto Dan, the current setup makes this price point the single most important level for traders to keep an eye on.

“Right now, the cost base is sitting around $100K,” they said. “After weeks of inverse movement, Bitcoin is showing the first signs of a reversal, making this level an important threshold to watch.”

A failure to break out would suggest that the bearish trend that began after the October high above $126,000 is still active. This technical analysis is in line with the observations of other experts, including Doctor Profit, who previously noted that Bitcoin has broken the temporary resistance level, paving the way towards the range of $97,000-$107,000.

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Conflicting Signs in the Transition Phase

Some market data paints a mixed picture, suggesting that Bitcoin may be in a transitional phase. On the other hand, the ratio of Bitcoin to stablecoins on Binance shows the accumulation of purchasing power.

As analyst Darkfost points out, stablecoin reserves on the platform have grown by nearly $1 billion recently. This increase shows a significant amount of money sitting on the sidelines, ready to buy BTC and support prices.

On the other hand, BorisD noted that Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio, which measures return relative to volatility, decreases as the price increases. This suggests that the recent rise is driven more by internal markets and short coverage than by strong, new demand from foreign investors, and is a behavior often seen when the market is looking for a clear direction.

That being said, all eyes are on whether Bitcoin can overcome the $100,000 barrier and change its narrative as the market looks to consolidate.