The average US home insurance premium is set to increase 24% between 2021 and 2024, according to the Consumer Federation of America – outpacing inflation by 11% over the same period.
Looking ahead, 82% of homeowners expect their premiums to increase by 2026. Most expect moderate increases: 43 percent expect a 1% to 5% increase. Another 29% expect an increase of 6% to 10%, and 16% expect premiums to increase by more than 10%, the report said.
Insurance costs are increasingly shaping the home buying process. Nearly half of homeowners – 49% – say the cost of home insurance weighs “very heavily” or “heavily” in their purchasing decisions.
Concerns about the adequacy of coverage are also growing.
Nearly one in three homeowners – 31% – say they are not confident they will be able to maintain adequate home insurance in 2026. Nineteen percent plan to change insurance providers in the next year.
Climate risk and coverage gaps
Climate-related risks underpin many of these concerns.
Almost all homeowners surveyed – 93% – expect severe weather-driven weather to damage their homes within the next three years.
More than two-thirds – 68% – expect the number of extreme weather events in their area to increase in 2026 compared to last year.
Climate risk also affects where homeowners are willing to live.
Florida and California top the list of states homeowners say they would avoid moving to due to exposure to severe weather, cited by 58 percent and 52 percent of respondents, respectively.
Other states that are often avoided include Hawaii, Louisiana, Texas and Alaska.
In contrast, less than 5% of respondents said they would avoid states like Vermont, New Hampshire, Delaware, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Utah or South Dakota because of the risk of weather.
Almost half of homeowners – 49% – say they are considering moving in 2026 because of climate-related concerns. Most of the movement is likely to be local rather than long distance.
Of those who are considering moving, 41% will move to their city or community, 35% will move to another location within their county and 25% will move to another county.
This pattern mirrors recent disaster-related displacement, where displaced homeowners tend to live within walking distance of their previous locations, Kin added.
Home prices are expected to continue to rise
Insurance pressures are occurring in line with expectations of continued price growth in the housing market.
80 percent of homeowners expect home prices in their area to increase by 2026. Another 17% expect prices to remain stable, while just 3% expect them to drop.
Federal Housing Finance Agency data shows home prices rising 2.2% year-on-year through 2025, continuing a 14-year streak of growth. Predictions for 2026 vary – with Fannie Mae it is expected to grow by 1.3% again National Association of Realtors (NAR) it is expected to increase by 4%.
Homeowners also expect high maintenance costs. Eighty percent expect the cost of home repairs and maintenance to increase by 2026.
Mortgage rates are still a barrier
Home mortgage rates are often a sticking point for many homeowners considering a move. While rates have fallen in late 2025 following the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts — dropping from 7.04% in January to 6.12% in December — many homeowners remain skeptical about further declines.
Only 32% believe prices will “fall meaningfully” by 2026. 74 percent said prices would need to fall 5% or lower to consider buying another home, levels currently beyond most forecasters’ expectations.
“As we move into next year, credit quality will improve a bit,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR. “It won’t be a big drop, but it will be a small drop that will improve accessibility.”
Expectations versus predictions
Homeowners’ climate concerns match the scientific consensus.
The Fifth National Climate Assessment concludes that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense across the United States.
Economic forecasts are less certain. Sean Harper, founder and CEO of Kin, says homeowners may see greater stability in 2026 than in recent years.
“We went through a period of economic instability, but it was driven by macroeconomic factors such as inflation and interest rates that have taken off,” Harper said.
He also expects a small increase in insurance premiums next year.
“Inflation has been one of the biggest drivers of premium increases over the years, but inflation is now happening at an unexpected pace,” Harper said. “Major premium increases were an issue in 2024, but they weren’t an issue in 2025 except in a few places like California, and they won’t be an issue in 2026.”
Research done online by Pollfish on Dec. 10, 2025, among a nationally representative sample of 1,000 US adults aged 18 to 65 who own single-family homes. Percentages are rounded to the nearest whole number.
