Bitcoin has spent several weeks struggling through a key price range, frustrating traders and reinforcing the bearish narrative across the market. After failing to regain key resistance levels, a growing number of analysts are calling for a broader bear market to emerge. The price has been volatile, momentum has weakened, and volatility has been suppressed—conditions that often increase pessimism. Yet beneath the surface, some analysts argue that Bitcoin is no longer behaving as it did in previous cycles.
According to this view, the market structure itself is changing. Long-term holders appear less active, sell-side pressure is limited, and on-chain activity suggests a slow, deliberate market. Rather than being a volatile volatile asset, Bitcoin is increasingly being traded and held for a long time horizon. This shift becomes especially useful as the policy landscape evolves in the United States.
The US Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to mark the crypto market structure bill known as the CLARITY Act on January 15, 2026. This event should not be interpreted as a short-term price catalyst. Instead, it represents a potential inflection point for Bitcoin to be placed within the US regulatory framework.
While prices remain stable, on-chain data is already pointing to a more institutionalized, regulated market. The implication is clear: Bitcoin may be entering a different phase, as sentiment is still mixed.
On-Chain Signals Point to Patience, Not Risk-Out
The CryptoQuant report, written by XWIN Research Japan, highlights that Exchange Netflow is still an important indicator in the current environment. Historically, periods of regulatory uncertainty have often pushed Bitcoin out of the trade as investors prepare to sell or reduce exposure.
Before the upcoming discussions of the CLARITY bill, however, this behavior has not yet occurred. Entry into the exchange has remained relatively muted, suggesting that market participants are not on the defensive or treat the legal process as an immediate threat.
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) reinforces this interpretation. The metric, which measures whether a changed coin is trading at a profit or loss, is around or slightly below the 1.0 threshold. This indicates a low profit-making activity. More importantly, it means that the on-chain usage itself remains low. In simple terms, Bitcoin is not manipulated, neither to gain profits nor to exit positions.
Together, Exchange Netflow and SOPR indicate a more patient than defensive market stance. Investors appear willing to hold on to uncertainty rather than diversify or rush to de-risk. The horizon is clearly expanding.
From this perspective, the CLARITY Act represents more than a policy debate. It marks a possible step toward integrating Bitcoin into the US financial framework as a regulated digital asset. On-chain data already shows this change: before any major price movement, Bitcoin is increasingly “sticky,” indicating a shift from speculative trading to institutional-level behavior.
Bitcoin Price Consolidation Continues
Bitcoin price action remains bound within a well-defined consolidation range, following a sharp correction that began in November. After rejecting the $120K–$125K region, BTC experienced an unexpected selloff that found a low near the $80K mid-point, where demand has clearly entered. Since then, the price has been recording a lower-higher structure, suggesting that the downward pressure is weakening.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is now trying to stabilize above the $92K area, which coincides closely with the previous level of support-turned-resistance. This zone has acted as a pivot throughout the current range and remains important in the short-term direction. A sustained hold above will strengthen the case for a broader recovery in the $98K–$100K area, where the short-term average declines meet.
However, the broader trend remains technically fragile. The price is still trading below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, both of which are down. This shows that the medium term structure has not changed to bullish. The volume also remains muted, reinforcing the impression that this move is corrective rather than impulsive.
As long as Bitcoin is stuck between $88K and $95K, the market is likely to remain range-bound. A decisive break above resistance or loss of current support will be required to resolve this consolidation phase and define the next directional move.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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