Bitcoin Top Not Available at $126,000, According to Business Cycle, Here’s Why
Crypto expert Plan C refers to the business cycle to explain why the top of Bitcoin not despite the flagship crypto’s run at $126,000 last year. This comes as BTC struggles to hold above the psychological level of $90,000, losing most of its gains since the beginning of the year.
Why Bitcoin Hasn’t Top Yet Based on the Business Cycle
In an X postPlan C suggested that it does not make sense to call Bitcoin higher when the business cycle has not even passed 50. The expert noted that BTC bull market peaks they have historically occurred when the business cycle reaches between 55 and 65. Notably, the latest ISM PMI data fell to 47.9 in December last year, indicating that the peak of the bull market has not yet occurred.
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Plan C was responding to X post from BTC analyst Sminston, who also pointed out that the Bitcoin top had not yet arrived. The commentator noted that ISM PMI it was still 47.9, less than 50. Based on this, Sminston noted that the spring was still gathering, with his accompanying chart showing that the price of BTC records a parabolic rally if the ISM PMI breaks above 50.
The chart also showed that Bitcoin price it could rise above $100,000 as the ISM PMI targets the 65 level, which could mark the peak of the BTC bull market and the broader crypto market as suggested by Plan C. Currently, BTC continues to struggle around $90,000, while other big data paints a mixed picture for the top crypto. The latest US jobs data strengthened the case for the Fed keeping rates unchanged at the January FOMC meeting, which is bearish on the crypto market.
BTC Needs Rebound Above $99,000 To Confirm Recovery
According to a Glassnode reportThe first plausible guarantee of Bitcoin’s recovery would be the steady return of Short-Term Cost Basis at $99,100. Glassnode says this will reflect renewed confidence among new market participants and a shift to more positive dynamics.
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Glassnode also noted that as attention turns to whether Bitcoin’s price can recover its Short-Term Cost Base, the broader framework is beginning to resemble the failure of previous reforms. This is similar to the period of Q1 2022, when BTC cannot recover above this level which increases the risk of contagion. deep bearish extension.
The on-chain analytics platform added that if the price of BTC remains below this threshold, confidence-driven demand may continue to deteriorate. Another on-chain analytics platform, CryptoQuant, warned that large Bitcoin investors are not buying the dip, and a similar rollover is said to occur between 2021 and 2022, before the price of BTC rises.
At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is trading around $90,500, down from the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
