Following the recent momentum seen earlier in the year, Bitcoin price has shown a disciplinary movement and is now closer to $90,000 than last week. While BTC’s most recent retracement suggests resistance at the $94,000 level, recent on-chain tests suggest the presence of more relative resistance just below $100,000.
Base Cost of New Whales Stays Around $99k
On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr recently took to social media X to share an interesting hypothesis for the price of Bitcoin. His on-chain view was based on the Guaranteed Value index New Whale STH Vs Old Whale LTH index.
In context, this metric compares the cost of acquiring, on average, newly collected whales (short-term holders) with that of holding long-term Bitcoin whales.
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Axel Adler Jr shared in his post that the new whales have an average entry price near the $99,000 level. Currently, Bitcoin is worth close to $90,000, which means that its new whales are holding unrealized losses.
Therefore, if the initial cryptocurrency rises to the acquisition value of whales between $99,000, the crypto pundit explained that these investors may be motivated to sell their assets. This means that these large holders of BTC are exiting the market in equal amounts, or while incurring small losses.
When very large Bitcoin investors sell their holdings, the result tends to translate into prices with reduced buying momentum and a simultaneous increase in downside pressure. As a result, the entry price of these investors – in this case, $ 99,000 – becomes a great resistance, both psychologically and technically.
Average Long Term Cost of Whales at $39K
In a separate post on the CryptoQuant platform, Arab Chain’s on-chain analyst revealed the average cost base for various types of Bitcoin investors. As new whales cling to their unrealized losses, Binance’s user deposit metrics tell an interesting story.
According to the analyst, the average cost of holding on Binance is about $52,691, which shows that a good part of Bitcoin traders do so while enjoying their profits.
Interestingly, Miner Whales are not left out of this comfort zone. This group of owners, with more than 1,000 BTC stored away, has an average holding cost of $58,681. Considering that the price is above their cost base, it suggests that Bitcoin miners are also deeply profitable. As a result, there will be less sales pressure from this market group.
For Long Term Bitcoin Coins, the story is pretty interesting. These investors held their coins at an average acquisition price of $39,681. As is intuitively clear, this group of BTC owners also operates within clear profit margins.
Finally, it is clear that Bitcoin has a bullish view structurally, with unwavering investor support. If downside momentum does enter the market, it is likely to be short-lived, as its older sellers appear to be under no pressure to liquidate their holdings. If these investor-sponsored returns occur, they are likely to be the result of small profit-taking, rather than put-down events.
As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin is around $90,624, with no significant movement since the previous day.
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Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
