Housing stock growth has slowed from 33% year-over-year in mid-2025 to 10.0% today. The cooling marks the very clear end of the period of supply shortages and the beginning of a market where price strength will be determined more by the strength of demand, prices and consumer behavior than shortages alone.
As HousingWire lead analyst Logan Mohtashami recently noted, “Year-over-year housing inventory growth has slowed to single digits, from 33% at the same time last year to 9.99%. mortgage-backed securities.”
Combined with a volatile rate and accelerated policy action, 2026 is shaping up to be a year defined less by deficits and more generally.
Demand-driven pricing replaces scarcity as the primary issue
The edge in this market goes to experts who can learn demand in real time. Price is becoming more sensitive to quality, seasonal patterns are returning, and transaction values are becoming smaller. That puts a premium on planning, timing and local decision-making over pure access to the ranks.
Asset growth is slow but adaptation is strong
Inventory is up 10% year over year, but the pace of growth has slowed significantly from the highs of 2025. Seasonal behavior also returns. List of names rejected between Jan. 2-9 after peaking around 2025, suggesting more predictable winter construction and spring construction.
“We would like the low season to happen in February,” said Mohtashami. “More supply means less price growth and better affordability.” The February trough will restore the type of regular listing route that agents, lenders and builders rely on to schedule spring activity.
New listings are still a problem in 2026
New listings totaled 39,007 for the week ending Jan. 9, down 12.6% year-on-year. The decline represents a major structural limitation heading into the spring selling season.
“The goal for new listings in 2026 is not just to return to 80,000 new listings per week during peak times of the season, but to grow above 80,000 in some weeks,” Mohtashami wrote. Without that acceleration, inventory expansion will be limited and transaction volume may remain below historical trends.
Price discovery replaces emergency bidding
Average days on market remains at 91, reflecting a more measured sales pace than the rapid turnover of previous cycles. A total of 34.7% of homes decreased in value, while 2.4% increased in value. Together, those signals point to a price zone defined by negotiation and rate sensitivity rather than urgency or bidding power.
Pending sales were 39,841 this week, down 2.4% from the same week in 2025. Combined with low new listings, this indicates a market that is operating fairly at low activity levels.
Prices re-enter the buyer’s calculus and the need to open
With mortgage rates closer to 6% than 7%, buyer analytics, seller psychology and leverage decisions are all improving. “Unlike early 2025, when mortgage rates ended up at 7.26%, we’re closer to 6% – the Trump administration is determined to get housing going again,” Mohtashami said.
The difference between 6% and 7% is behavior. It affects the ability to pay, time to raise, refi eligibility and participation of investors. It also creates competition at certain price points without reinvigorating the 2021–2022 bidding war.
How this data is used
Agents and brokerages
- Use the normal season and sensitive demand and rate in listing time before spring.
- Buyers of trainers that the price changes in negotiations instead of urgency.
Lenders and mortgage operators
- Match the level of messaging around demand elasticity, not just accessibility.
- Use pending trends to plan workforce management and funnel management.
Builders and developers
- Expect direct competition for resale as new inventory recovers.
- Position to motivate buyers by comparing new stock against existing stock.
Investors and portfolios
- View price cuts as normal price recovery rather than depression.
- Characteristic policy risk in relation to rate and cap rate dynamics.
The 2026 market is defined by moderation and balance
Mohtashami noted that “2026 will be the first year in many years with near-normal spreads and more rate cuts already in the pipeline.” After years of excess – first in demand, then in supply – the market is entering a balanced regime where transaction decisions depend on time, prices, negotiation and local energy rather than scarcity.
All data represent single-family households nationally. Weekly data represents Friday summaries from Jan 9. 2026. HousingWire used HW Data for this story. To see what’s happening in your local market, do real estate market reports. For enterprise customers looking to license the same market data on a larger scale, visit HW Data.
