The Bitcoin hash ribbons indicator recently turned into a buy signal on the weekly time frame, according to a January 8 video analysis from crypto analyst Kevin (@Kev Capital TA). The setup is important, he said, because the model has historically been associated with higher prices after periods of correction, even if its track record is spotty.
In the video, Kev Capital walked viewers through a weekly chart of Bitcoin with an overlay of hash ribbons, describing it as one of the highest “hit rate” signs in the crypto technical playbook. “There have been 19 buy signals during a weekly period in the entire history of Bitcoin and it has an 84% hit rate,” he said, adding that such consensus is rare in any single indicator.
Hash ribbons attempt to reduce miner stress and recovery by comparing short-term and long-term moving averages of a network’s hash rate. Kev Capital pitched it less as a simple “buy/sell” tool and more as a proxy for network health, where miners’ behavior can precede changes in market structure. “It’s not just a buy and sell indicator. It tracks the mining hash rate,” he said. “And what that means is tracking the power and health of the network on the Bitcoin blockchain.”
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The mechanics, as he describes them, depend on the 30-day moving average of the hash rate (his chart showed this as a green line) versus the 60-day moving average (grey line). When the 30-day falls below the 60-day, the model records a capitulation, which it describes as consistent with bearish price action and a weak network base. When 30 days fall back more than 60 days, the indicator prints a buy signal (shown as green dots on his chart), which translates as miners “rebounding” after weak operators are removed.
“Whenever those 30 days fall below 60, they mark a release phase, indicating that there has been bearish price action in a weak network,” said Kev Capital. “Now, when you fall back above that’s where you get the green dots, and that’s a buy signal. That’s when the 30-day moving average of the hash rate moves back above the 60-day hash rate.”
Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Buy Signal Recovery
The near-term catalyst for his revival was a series of new signals in late December. Kev Capital said hash ribbons flashed in the second to last week of December, followed by a buy signal in the last week of December. He noted that the indicator is also “lighting a balance signal” during the current week, which has not yet been confirmed as to what could set up another buy signal if the moving average continues to “converge” and settle higher.
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He also spent time confirming the actor’s reputation. While citing the historical average of 84% of weekly buy signals, he said that at the beginning of the current cycle the index printed two buy signals: in May and July they did not deliver the kind of follow-through that defined previous successful conditions.
“We went up from the original buy signal, but it really wasn’t much,” he said, comparing that to previous ribbon episodes “that usually produced 30 to 100% moves. In his telling, those disappointing results were enough to break what he described as the previous frame’s “100% strike rate.”
#BTC Weekly Hash Ribbons buy signal and what they mean. #Crypto #Altcoins
— Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) January 8, 2026
However, Kev Capital says the context is now different because the latest signal comes after the drawdown. He mentioned the 36% decline of Bitcoin during the recent correction period and suggested the first signs of discovery by miners, which are seen in stable moving levels and attempts to emerge, are the conditions where the index has historically performed best.
However, he cautioned that time varies, saying the setup could take “two to four to six weeks” to play, or sooner.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $91,009.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
