Bitcoin Cycle Shift? Analyst Puts 55–65% Negative on Green 2026

Analysts see 2026 green as a possibility if BTC strongly defends the monthly close above $105K and holds the $90K support.

The price of Bitcoin rose above $97,000 on January 14, reaching its highest point since November.

The move came as a well-known historical price pattern showed a clear deviation, leading analysts to question whether the fundamental structure of the market is changing.

A Deviation from the Rhythm of History

According to analyst Egrag Crypto, over ten years, Bitcoin annual price candles follow a simple, repetitive sequence: three consecutive years in the green (up) followed by one year in the red (down). This pattern coincided with a four-year cycle of halvings, in which the year after the halving was usually up.

Egra noted that this cycle has already broken that rhythm. The sequence from 2023 to 2025 was Green, Green, Red, a departure from the expected Green, Green, Green, Green, Red pattern of previous cycles. The market watcher gave a 55% to 65% chance of 2026 ending in the green, putting the 2025 red candle as a cooling phase instead of a broad turn.

That view depends on confirmation signals, including a strong monthly close above the $105,000 area, price stability above a major band near $90,000, and momentum potential at higher periods. 2026 red, which Egrag puts at 35–45%, could point to an extended consolidation rather than a crash, with wide ranges and slow progress.

The debate also echoed the comments of chartist PlanB, who wrote in X that the four-year cycle should not be confused with the stock-to-flow model. He it was argued that while the year after half worked well, 2025 clearly broke that pattern.

PlanB added that stock-to-flow tracks average prices throughout the cycle, not up or down, and noted that the average for the current cycle remains near $90,000, up from $34,000 for the previous cycle.

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Value Action and Owner Behavior

At the time of writing, BTC was trading just below $97,000, up about 2% on the day, with a weekly gain of around 8% and an increase of about 12% last month, according to CoinGecko data.

The price went from just under $90,000 to $98,000 within days, regaining a few places that were not previously opposed, and analysts like Ted Pillows now. to watch the 50-week moving average near $97,500 as a technical checkpoint after the stock regained the $95,000 region.

Short-term owners are always more active. Darkfost reported that as BTC recovers to $97,000, over 40,000 BTC in profit sent exchange in one day, which raises a warning after the latest correction in 2025.

In contrast, Bitcoin’s market share has increased by more than 57%, while many major altcoins have lagged behind, reinforcing their relative strength during the rally.