The housing market continues to test patience: inventory remains tied up in many states, buyer-seller activity is beginning to normalize and interest rates are still shaping consumer skepticism (but that may be changing!) By general measures, momentum feels limited.
However under those conditions, a different signal appears; that we can predict more than housing market headlines alone.
According to the newly released 2026 Agent Confidence Indexreal estate agents don’t equate a tough market with personal downsizing. Instead, the data reveals a growing gap between how agents assess current conditions and how they feel about their ability to succeed. That division may be one of the industry’s most important indicators this year.
A low-level view of the agent’s emotions
The Agent Confidence Index is designed to answer a question rarely answered directly in real estate research: how confident do real estate agents feel about their business, skills and future?
Developed by Darryl Davis and his team, the index focuses on agent experience rather than external interpretation. Featuring feedback from agents who work closely with buyers and sellers, they provide a field-level perspective that regular market reports often miss.
Slow market not weak agents
By most benchmarks, agents agree that the market remains challenging. Almost half of those surveyed described current market conditions as weak or very weak. More than 60% reported buyer activity below normal levels and more than half said seller activity was also below normal seasonal patterns.
These statistics are consistent with broader industry data and reinforce the view of a slower and more selective market than in recent years.
Despite those circumstances, the agent’s confidence remains strong. About 65% of agents report a positive outlook on their real estate career, and more than 86% expect to still be in business next year. About two-thirds believe their income outlook is stable or improving.
The gap between market awareness and strong personal confidence shows that agents do not see nature as broken. Instead, they see it as competition.
The opportunity, in their view, has shrunk, not disappeared.
Ability is not a concern
One of the most obvious ideas from the index is what not call the agent to worry. Despite a year of stagnant pay, high compensation scrutiny and the demands of new client representation, agents report strong confidence in their professional abilities:
- Over 80% do not feel confident in explaining compensation changes
- About 87% feel confident in using the required forms correctly
- Over 86% feel confident to advertise and represent the property accurately
Professionalism and compliance are absent when agents feel vulnerable.
The real barrier is access to opportunity
Where concern comes from access to business. Across all experience levels and business models, lack of qualified leads and limited assets are ranked as the top two business challenges. Those issues were also identified as important for training.
That combination tells us. Agents do not ask for additional explanations of rules or technical instructions. They want better systems to generate more opportunities in a strong market.
Moving away from institutional dependence
The data also shows a broader shift in the way agents view industrial establishments. While satisfaction with MLS services remains low, more than 70% of agents say national association membership is not important to their business. About one-third reported dissatisfaction with local agency support.
This does not suggest not engaging in this activity. Instead, it reflects an increasing reliance on personal knowledge, local knowledge and direct customer relationships.
Agents increasingly see themselves, not institutions, as the primary source of clarity and credibility for consumers navigating uncertainty.
Competition feels like a challenge, not a frustration
Despite frequent discussions of agent saturation and decline, most agents do not describe competition as unmanageable. About half describe it as a challenge, but most say it’s defeatable. Few believe that success depends on product size, price pressure or transaction volume.
Instead, agents who feel prepared point to price clarity and consistency of consideration as their competitive advantage. For buyers and team leaders planning for the next 12 months, the explanation is clear: performance depends less on adding complexity and more on getting the basics right.
Technology and AI are creating a silent divide
The index also highlights an emerging gap around technology and AI. Many agents believe these tools provide sound advice, but relatively few use them regularly. For those who use these tools, the benefits are obvious, including time savings, quick tracking, and effective communication.
Rather than replacing relationships, technology silently removes friction – everything in the process that slows the agent down, worries them, or quietly steals their focus. In a slow market, efficiency is an advantage.
What do agents expect next?
Agents don’t predict dramatic returns. Their vision for 2026 is measured. They expect a gradual improvement with limited rate relief, increased inventory gains and continued strength in areas such as new construction and transportation.
That reality may be the healthiest sign of all. Work is no longer waiting for the right conditions. It prepares to perform under imperfection.
The most important insights from the survey are straightforward:
Agents who are likely to be successful this year are not waiting for the market to improve. They create programs that work regardless of circumstances.
The gap between market sentiment and agent confidence is not a form of denial. It shows strategic positioning and may be a sign the industry should pay close attention to as the next cycle approaches.
Darryl Davis, CSP, has spoken to, coached, and mentored over 600,000 real estate professionals worldwide. He is a best-selling author for McGraw-Hill Publishing, and his book, How to Become A Power Agent in Real Estate, tops Amazon’s best-selling real estate agent charts.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of HousingWire’s editorial department and its owners.
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