ONDO’s Quiet Accumulation: Whales Hold 1.94B Opening While Price Bleeds
ONDO has lost more than 65% of its value since October as heavy selling pressure continues to dominate the altcoin market. While Bitcoin has shown relative stability at key levels, many mid-tier tokens like ONDO have struggled to find consistent demand. This decline has reduced sentiment to the bearish side, especially as traders remain cautious on liquidity events and token openings.
Still, some analysts argue that the current dip is not just a sign of weakness. The CryptoQuant report explains that headlines may be shouting “price drop,” but on-chain data points to “opportunity” instead. The focus is now on the massive ONDO 1.94 billion token opening scheduled for January 18, 2026. Historically, the opening may result in panic selling, as investors expect higher circulating supply and increased distribution pressure.
However, this time may be different. The report suggests that major market participants are in bearish mode, using fear as a window to capitalize. Rather than treating the opening as a reason to exit, the data suggests that “smart money” is moving in to capture supply while retail confidence remains fragile. That sets the stage for a critical test.
Smart Money Absorption Signals Are Building
CryptoQuant’s report reveals why major investors seem to be ignoring the noise about ONDO’s decline. The first sign is the “whale shield.” Despite the sharp correction since December 2024, Spot Average Order size continues to be dominated by “Big Whale Orders,” shown by the fixed green dots on the chart. This means institutions are using the weakness to absorb capital, with the $0.35–$0.40 area serving as the starting point for accumulation.
Second, ONDO officially entered the Taker Buy Dominant category. The 90-day Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) remains positive and continues to rise, indicating that the market’s buying pressure has outpaced selling markets for months. This is important because takers represent aggressive participants who buy when they ask without waiting for better entries.
The report labels this alignment as “taker alpha.” When large whale orders and aggressive animal purchases strengthen while the price falls, it usually indicates absorption. If this continues through the opening, ONDO is likely to build a consolidated spring setup for 2026 RWA output.
ONDO Extends Downtrend As Bulls Protect Key Demand Zone
ONDO remains under severe pressure after a prolonged downturn that wiped out most of its 2025 results. The 3-day chart shows a clear breakout from the previous consolidation range near $0.90–$1.00, where the price repeatedly failed to regain momentum during the second half of the year. When sellers forced a significant decline, the market quickly turned into a bullish trend marked by weak bounces and consistent lower highs.
At the time of writing, ONDO is trading near $0.33 after slipping below the $0.40 handle, a psychological level that once served as temporary support. This decline places the token deep below the key moving averages, with short trend lines rolling in and acting as high resistance. A failed recovery effort through the end of 2025 ensures that sellers remain in control, while buyers struggle to generate enough volume to reverse the trend.
However, the price is now approaching the much-needed area around $0.30–$0.35, where volatility is historically rising and dip buyers may try to enter. If this area fails, the chart suggests that the decline may accelerate. However, a strong defense can open the door to a stabilization phase before any meaningful rebound.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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