The Bitcoin Cycle Is Not Over: Price Bands Found Show Owner Stress Above Key Levels
Bitcoin saw a sharp pullback this week, falling below the $92,500 mark after failing to hold above $95,500. While the decline reignited fears of a bear market across crypto, bulls are now trying to stabilize the price and protect the current range before selling pressure accelerates further. The move came as markets reacted to renewed uncertainty, with tax headlines from Europe adding fresh pressure to de-risk global assets.
The latest report centers on the EU’s possible retaliatory measures against the United States, including tariffs and trade restrictions aimed at countering political threats associated with NATO tensions. Even without a quick launch, the headlines were enough to tighten liquidity and trigger a quick sell-off, pushing Bitcoin lower as traders cut back on risk exposure.
Despite the decline, the analyst MorenoDV says that the market does not fall at the end of the cycle, but instead enters the stage of “redistribution of risk.” His theory is based on Bitcoin Price by UTXO age bands, a framework that helps map where psychological stress builds across different groups. Rather than tracking the direction of a trend, the metric highlights which stocks are free, underwater, and where subtle selling pressure may be emerging.
In MorenoDV’s opinion, Bitcoin exchanges pressure between clusters, it does not break structurally.
Confirmed Price Bands Show Where Bitcoin Depression Is Building
The current decline in Bitcoin is not creating the same pressure across the market. Instead, pressure builds unevenly across different owner groups, based on their rental rates. In the current setup, the price is sitting around $95,583, while the realized value for the 1w–1m collection is $89,255 and the 1m–3m collection is $93,504.
That means new short-term owners still benefit, which is an important element of stability. When the most recent buyers are rewarded rather than penalized, countermeasures tend to be weaker, because fear does not converge at the edges.
However, the pressure is concentrated on the old short-term collections. The realized price of the 3m–6m comes to $114,808, while the 6m–12m collection sits close to $100,748, putting both groups underwater. This suggests that Bitcoin has not been aggressively redistributed at lower levels, as a large portion of medium-term holders are still stuck above the surface. The market is showing discomfort, but not submissiveness, and losses are more patiently acquired than forcefully sold.
If Bitcoin starts to find a price range of 6m–12m, the stress of that group may quickly ease. However, sustainability depends on mental performance. Mid-term managers must view this phase as a temporary downturn, not a structural collapse. If that belief breaks, the selling pressure can seem even stronger.
Bitcoin Slides Below Key Support As Bulls Defend Range
Bitcoin is under pressure again after failing to hold above the midpoint of $95,000, with the price now trading close to $93,000. The chart shows a sharp rejection from the recent area high, followed by a clean decline that erased most of the recent rebound. This reversal suggests that upward momentum remains fragile, even after the market briefly regained highs in early January.
From a structural perspective, BTC is now back within the broad consolidation range that formed after the end-of-November sell-off. The recent bounce looked constructive at first, but the inability to keep following above resistance has put the sellers back in control. Volume has increased on the downside, which tends to indicate strong confidence versus a slight pullback.
Bitcoin is also trading below its major moving averages this time around, reinforcing the idea that the broader trend remains bearish until bulls take significant levels. In the near-term, the market should hold support at the low-$92,000 to $93,000 area to avoid another elimination-driven decline.
If the bulls can stabilize the price here, BTC may try another push to $95,000. However, repeated rejection increases the risk of a deep breakdown.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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