Will BTC Go Below $90K This Week?

Bitcoin is facing a significant pullback after a strong recovery following the early January reset. The price has declined in a major confluence area around $98,000, where resistance is high and the moving average cluster is important.

It is now spiraling down while still holding above the all-important lows established in December.

The current phase, therefore, is seen as a test of the strength of support within a rising correction structure rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Daily Chart

On the daily chart, Bitcoin bounced off the $98,000 resistance band, which coincides with the upper boundary of the ascending channel structure and the 100-day moving average.

The 200-day moving average is constantly moving up and down around $105,000, confirming that the broader medium-term trend has not yet completely settled. The Daily RSI also retreated from the overbought zone and dropped below the 50% threshold.

The first important support now sits at the $90,000 level, where the lower channel boundary and the base of the recent bounce overlap. A loss of this area to the close would pave the way towards the much sought-after barrier around $80,000, indicating the origin of the recent leg high and the previous major rally point. As long as the price holds above $88,000 and retraces $90,000 with certainty, the daily formation could still evolve into a constructive lower-higher configuration, but a sustained trade below $88,000 would weaken that constructive bias.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart shows the price is ready to test the lower boundary of the ascending channel. It has fallen from recent highs near $96,000 back to the $90,000–$91,000 area, where temporary support formed during the previous consolidation.

The 4-hour RSI has also moved into oversold territory, showing bearish momentum after several consecutive red candles.

If the lower boundary holds $89,000–$90,000, a technical return to $93,000–$95,000 will be in line with the general test of the broken intraday range and can help determine whether traders maintain control.

On the other hand, a clean break below $89,000 there will confirm the loss of the short-term high channel and perhaps invite a deeper examination of the high-term demand area around $80,000. Currently, the intraday structure is showing corrective pressure within a wider consolidation band than a fully developed bearish trend.

On-Chain Analysis

The behavior of short-term managers in recent months has been characterized by continued loss realization. The 30-day EMA of SOPR’s short-term holder has spent a long time below its neutral threshold around 1, indicating that the coins held for the short term have been averaged with losses. This pattern suggests that late entrants and weak hands have been exiting during the consolidation phase, catching lower and sideways volatility instead of aggressively defending higher prices.

Historically, long periods in which short-term holders experience losses while the price is above long-term support are often associated with “resetting” the market position: excess speculation decreases, ownership shifts to stronger hands, and sensitivity to new demand increases.

These variables do not guarantee an immediate continuation, and if capital demand continues to be weak, the excess of losses obtained may still weigh on the price. However, the combination of structural support holding on the chart and evidence of strength among short-term participants is consistent with a late-stage correction zone where, when the selling pressure is over, it provides the basis for the next unexpected advance.