Bitcoin has experienced one of its sharpest corrections in recent years, falling below the level of 65,000 dollars and reaching its lowest value since October 2024. The decline shows the persistent selling pressure in the entire crypto market, accompanied by a large emotional breakdown, reduction of funds, and a cautious stance among institutional participants. The recent price action suggests that the market is entering a critical phase where confidence, rather than technical levels alone, may determine the next move.
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Amid this uncertainty, the Binance SAFU Fund disclosed the purchase of an additional 3,600 BTC, with an estimated value of $233.37 million. While such acquisitions do not guarantee a market reversal, it demonstrates the continued strategic accumulation of the industry’s major players even in times of high volatility.
Market sentiment is down significantly. Several sentiment indicators are now close to levels last seen during the bear market of 2022, when risk appetite wanes significantly and investors adopt a defensive stance. This environment is often accompanied by reduced speculative activity, heightened vigilance among retail traders, and increased scrutiny from institutional capital.
Institutional Accumulation Occurs During the Long Takeover Phase
Arkham’s data shows that the Binance SAFU fund has continued to accumulate Bitcoin, bringing the latest purchase amount to about 6,230 BTC, which is approximately $ 434.5 million. While such activity indicates continued participation from large companies, it does not necessarily mean a price recovery is imminent. Historically, significant purchases during correction phases tend to occur in conjunction with market pressure rather than marking a rapid turnaround.
Current market conditions are increasingly similar to the old valuation phase. Capitulation usually occurs when a sustained price decline forces weak holders out of positions, often at a loss, leading to cash inflows, depressed capital, and a sharp downturn in sentiment. These episodes may last longer than many stakeholders expect, especially when macroeconomic uncertainty, the risk environment, and strengthened financial stability conditions combine.
Importantly, capitulation does not follow a fixed timeline. In previous cycles, similar stages unfolded over the course of weeks or even months before solid ground was formed. During these times, volatility tends to remain high, failed rallies are common, and confidence builds gradually rather than suddenly.
Important variables to monitor include exchange flows, rising derivatives, spot demand detection, and major signals. Until those metrics stabilize, the fundamentals remain weak in the market. Large-scale institutional capital accumulation may provide structural support, but rarely prevents extended consolidation or other adverse effects during financial performance.
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Weekly Plot Shows Break Below Key Support
The weekly chart of Bitcoin shows a clear breakdown of the market structure after losing the $70K region, a level that previously served as psychological and technical support. The latest candle shows a strong decline, with the price briefly touching the $60K area before settling near $65.9K. This movement confirms the divergence from the previous consolidation range and changes the focus on whether this decline represents a deep bear phase or a recent cycle correction.
From a trend perspective, Bitcoin is now trading below the 50-week moving average while approaching the 100-week moving average. Historically, it has been a key support variable during correction phases. The 200-week average remains significantly lower, indicating that the long-term macro trend has not fully reversed, although the average momentum has clearly weakened.
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Volume power also matters here. The recent selloff shows increased participation compared to earlier periods of consolidation, suggesting distribution rather than easy profit-taking. However, high volume without an increase in price can indicate trader fatigue.
If Bitcoin fails to recover the $70K area, the downside risk towards the $60K–$55K area remains visible. Conversely, stability above current levels would indicate absorption, a necessary precursor to any meaningful recovery.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
