Justin Drake: Quantum computing could break crypto keys in minutes, Ethereum aims for post-quantum security by 2029, and the race to protect the blockchain against quantum threats

Important takeaways

• Quantum computing poses a major threat to current cryptographic systems used in crypto.
• The evolution of quantum computers requires strategic allocation of resources to minimize risk.
• Quantum computers can break cryptographic keys in a matter of minutes.
• Three key cryptographic components in crypto are vulnerable to quantum computing.
• Quantum computers, if built on a large enough scale, could break existing cryptographic systems.
• There is a reasonable chance of having a cryptographically compatible quantum computer by 2031.
• The development of quantum algorithms reduces the number of qubits needed to break Ethereum’s cryptography.
• A cryptographically compatible quantum computer could jeopardize the security of the entire crypto industry.
• Cold wallets can be protected from quantum attacks by not revealing the public key until the transaction is done.
• About 30% of keys are not secured behind a hash, which poses a security risk.
• The transition to post-quantum cryptography involves both technical and social challenges.
• To maintain long-term privacy, blockchain systems must adopt secure quantum cryptography now.
• Privacy coins such as Zcash will be prime targets for quantum computers due to their ability to allow the theft of funds without detection.
• Ethereum plans to upgrade all of its cryptography to post-quantum security by 2029.
• The blockchain industry will attract a significant amount of post-quantum talent in the near future.

Guest introduction

Justin Drake is a researcher for the Ethereum Foundation. He played a key role in Ethereum’s transition from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake, known as The Merge. His work focuses on cryptographic protocols, scalability, and security in blockchain technology.

The threat of quantum computing to cryptographic security

• “Quantum computers could break cryptographic keys in minutes.” – Justin Drake
• “Quantum computing poses a serious threat to the current cryptographic systems used in crypto.” – Justin Drake
• “Three key cryptographic components in crypto are vulnerable to quantum computing.” – Justin Drake
• “Quantum computers, if built on a large enough scale, could break existing cryptographic systems.” – Justin Drake
• “There is a reasonable chance that we could have a cryptographically valid computer by 2031.” – Justin Drake
• The development of quantum algorithms greatly reduces the number of qubits needed to break Ethereum’s cryptography.
• A cryptographically compatible quantum computer could jeopardize the security of the entire crypto industry.
• “Emergence of powerful quantum computing poses a systemic risk to all cryptos.” – Justin Drake
• Quantum computers can disrupt blockchain consensus mechanisms by breaking cryptographic protections in place.
• “Quantum computers can take a long time to break cryptographic keys, but other methods like supercomputing can do it much faster.” – Justin Drake

Prepares for quantum threats on the blockchain

• “We need to start preparing for the transition to new cryptography early before the arrival of quantum computers.” – Justin Drake
• Cold wallets can be protected from quantum attacks by not revealing the public key until the transaction is done.
• “Approximately 30% of keys are not secured behind a hash, which poses a security risk.” – Justin Drake
• Exchanges often manage their assets through a tiered storage system that includes cold, warm, and hot wallets.
• “There is a competitive race between big companies to develop quantum computers that can attack crypto.” – Justin Drake
• Governments are investing heavily in quantum computing technology, but their progress has not been publicized.
• “China may be one of the few governments motivated to attack blockchain technology.” – Justin Drake
• The transition to post-quantum cryptography involves both technical and social challenges.
• “The size problem in post-quantum cryptography has a major impact on blockchain performance.” – Justin Drake
• Signature integration is a solution being developed to address the size problem in blockchain transactions.

The future of blockchain security

• “The unconventional development of Bitcoin poses a risk in the face of the development of quantum computing technology.” – Justin Drake
• “It would be a disaster if each blockchain developed its own post-quantum solution independently.” – Justin Drake
• The collaboration between Ethereum and Bitcoin could lead to a unified post-quantum cryptographic solution.
• “Having industry-wide standards in cryptography has benefits for interoperability and security.” – Justin Drake
• The Falcon signature system is a notable example of the level of secrecy used for post-quantum security.
• The Algorand proof of state uses the Falcon signature system to provide a secure post-quantum proof of state blockchain.
• “Post-quantum signatures improve security by preventing quantum computers from signing.” – Justin Drake
• “Quantum computing poses a serious threat to the current encryption methods used in blockchain technology.” – Justin Drake
• To maintain long-term privacy, blockchain systems must adopt secure quantum cryptography now.
• Privacy coins such as Zcash will be prime targets for quantum computers due to their ability to allow the theft of funds without detection.

Ethereum’s approach to quantum security

• “Ethereum’s missing coins represent a small fraction of its circulating supply.” – Justin Drake
• Migration to secure post-quantum wallets may require user action unless proof of seed phrase knowledge is used.
• In the event of a quantum attack, Ethereum may need to shut down temporarily to implement security measures.
• The transition to Ethereum’s secure post-quantum cryptography will involve a complex process that could temporarily bring the network to a halt.
• “Ethereum plans to upgrade all of its cryptography to post-quantum security by 2029.” – Justin Drake
• “Algorand’s method of improvement consists of sending state proofs and iterating based on learned experiences.” – Justin Drake
• Post quantum cryptography has very different performance profiles compared to classical cryptography.
• Starting early with post quantum change is important to learn and adjust strategies.
• “The blockchain industry will attract a large amount of post-quantum talent in the near future.” – Justin Drake
• Hash-based cryptography is followed because of its uncompromising security in solving the size problem.

The role of hash-based cryptography

• “Hash-based cryptography is preferred for its consistent security despite larger signature sizes compared to lattice-based signatures.” – Justin Drake
• The ‘hash gambit’ allows for larger signatures while solving size problems with smaller, faster-to-verify proofs.
• “Distributed mempools can effectively manage transaction flow and improve resiliency.” – Justin Drake
• Hash-based signatures offer a combination of security and simplicity, making them a viable option for blockchain technology.
• Merkle trees and hash-based signatures are fundamental technologies that can improve blockchain security.
• “Post-quantum cryptography is emerging with practical applications from theoretical concepts.” – Justin Drake
• Lattice-based cryptography and hash-based cryptography are important classes chosen for post-quantum cryptography standards.
• “Lattice-based cryptography will lead to major improvements in privacy and computing within the next five to ten years.” – Justin Drake
• Nick Carter’s concerns about Bitcoin’s vulnerability to quantum threats are valid.
• Bitcoin may not stand the test of time due to its security budget.

Facing Bitcoin’s quantum risk

• “A small group of researchers can effectively address technical challenges in blockchain technology.” – Justin Drake
• The Bitcoin migration process can take up to a year.
• Increasing the block size is a technically foolproof solution to Bitcoin’s clustering problem.
• Hash-based signatures can provide a boost to Bitcoin without increasing the block size.
• “Quantum computers will eventually scale up to break current cryptography, but the timeline is uncertain.” – Justin Drake
• The timeline for the development of quantum computers capable of breaking cryptography is unpredictable.
• Satoshi coins pose a unique threat to Bitcoin due to their abundance and public key structure.
• The possible theft of Satoshi coins could lead to a controversial discussion and a possible fork in the Bitcoin community.
• The quantum threat exposure in Bitcoin may be overstated, with only a small amount of bitcoins at risk.
• Quantum computing may allow the theft of Satoshi coins within a few years.

The urgency of improving blockchain security

• “The pace of development of quantum computing could lead to fast and widespread power that surpasses current security measures.” – Justin Drake
• Quantum computers can silently accumulate private keys before they attack blockchain wallets.
• Chains must improve their security measures before quantum computing becomes a threat.
• AI may accelerate the discovery of mathematical breakthroughs that would threaten current cryptographic systems.
• The move to post-quantum cryptography must be done quickly and so should the move to post-AI cryptography.
• “We should avoid systematic assumptions in cryptography and favor more informal methods like hash-based cryptography.” – Justin Drake
• The way we think about post-quantum cryptography is changing from defensive to aggressive.
• Ethereum’s practical approach to quantum security could attract institutional capital.
• “Ethereum is becoming an attractive asset for investors due to its continuous exposure to quantum threats.” – Justin Drake