Bitcoin Price Will Crash Another 50% As Analyst Marks $40,000 Lower Target
I The price of Bitcoin has already crashed up 32.5% from last year’s high of over $126,000, to the region of $85,000. Although the cryptocurrency has recovered slowly and is it now trades above $90,000crypto analyst predicted another big price crash in 2026. According to the forecast, Bitcoin could decrease by 50%, following the trends. looked at in previous cycles, it may have hit the bottom near $40,000.
Bitcoin Price Set For 50% Crash
Bitcoin could face another price correction as technical indicators continue to show a strong bear market. Market expert CryptoBullet he warns that Bitcoin’s bear market behavior is not over yet, with deep reversals in line with long-term on-chain trends.
CryptoBullet supports his opinion on Bitcoin Price Madea metric that shows the average value at which all circulating coins were last moved. He explained that this standard serves as an important reference point in time bear markets and it has historically marked areas where the price eventually declined before making a low.
Looking at past cycles, he noted that Bitcoin has consistently fallen below its Guaranteed Value during bear markets. The decline reached 66% in 2011, 48% in 2015, 35% in 2018, and 33% in 2022, indicating a consistent trend for prices to drop below this level. Because of these repeated declines, the analyst believes that the next bear market crash will follow a similar pattern, resulting in a 50% drop to $40,000 with Bitcoin this year.
Another key feature that supports CryptoBullet analysis is The decline in Bitcoin volatility over time. He noted that the gap between the market price and the Realized Price has decreased slightly, decreasing from a deviation of 66% in 2011 to about 33% in 2022.
Due to this trend, the analyst does not expect the bear market this year to be difficult as noted in previous cycles. Instead, he estimates that Bitcoin could fall 24% to 31% below the Realized Price, putting its most likely limit in the $40,000 to $43,000 range.
Extreme Bear Market Scenario
With the Confirmed Price currently close to $56,000, CryptoBullet has also warned that Bitcoin may drop even further to below $40,000 this year. The analyst noted that if the market recovers 2022 bear marketa 33% drop below Guaranteed Price would put Bitcoin near $37,400.
He added that in the third quarter or the fourth quarter of 2026, the Realized Price may drop to $53,000 or $54,000, which would result in a similar loss of 33%. pushing Bitcoin closer to $35,000. The analyst said $35,000 represents the biggest drop he could see this year based on historical behavior. The accompanying chart also illustrates this view by highlighting previous bear market crashes that occurred after the price dropped below the Action Price line.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
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