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I FTSE 100 up nearly 20% in 2025, its best year since 2009. Much of the heavy lifting came from the strong performance of precious metals producers, banks and other financial stocks. With the index touching the 10,000 mark for a while – and dividend yields falling – investors may reasonably wonder if the best opportunities have passed. However, I still see bargains, even among stocks that have worked hard recently.
Fluctuating stock
After a three-year decline in April, Glencore (LSE: GLEN) has enjoyed a strong comeback, more than doubling from its lows. Yet despite that rally, shares are up only 14% in 2025, leaving the miner behind many of the index’s biggest winners.
One of the reasons for that price watch is the continued focus on volatility. Glencore’s earnings have fluctuated significantly over the years, and the market seems to think that will continue.
But that framework misses an important structural point: a company’s earnings and cash flows have a built-in operating profit. In other words, business can equally benefit from even modest stabilization in commodity markets – and we may already be seeing that happen.
Copper prices
For example, take copper. The red metal has enjoyed a strong run, rising nearly 40% over the past year. That rally is supported on both the demand and supply sides.
Demand comes from many sources, including electrification, renewable energy, industrial activity and AI data center construction.
Currently, the supply remains delayed. Major producing nations such as Chile saw a lower result, while ore grades continued to decline over time.
Layer on top of that is uncertainty around tax policy, countries hoarding metals and the threat of export bans, as well as a strong positive mix underneath.
But here’s the bottom line: copper prices don’t need to be parabolic for a miner’s earnings to grow meaningfully. Price stability, combined with constant volumes and systematic cost control, can be enough to shift the perspective of profits from contraction to expansion.
Lack of market value
Too bad, that’s not how the market looks to value Glencore today. Many investors continue to think that long-term weakness in coal will wash out any metals, leaving earnings tied to the divide or worse. As a result, expectations remain muted, even as share prices return.
However, the adjusted EBIT chart – which excludes the single income counters – tells a different story. It shows that, despite weak steel prices in 2023 and 2024, the Metals and Minerals division remains remarkably strong. In contrast, Energy and Coal Steelmaking has fallen, now contributing less to overall profits than the steel business.
A chart created by the author
This suggests that the market may be underestimating the company’s true operating potential.
Important risks
Operational risks remain, from weather-related disruptions to rising costs as mines get deeper and work gets more intense.
The miner’s global footprint also presents political and regulatory uncertainties, including changes in tax laws and government intervention in key producing regions. These factors can affect production and cash flow, even if demand for steel remains strong.
Bottom line
Glencore remains a stock that I continue to watch in my portfolio. Its metallurgical advantage and operational flexibility mean that even minor stability can improve cash flow. For investors looking for exposure to long-term asset trends, it’s worth considering – especially as the FTSE 100 sits near 10,000.
