Weekly housing inventory data
Housing inventory is expected to drop seasonally in early 2026, hopefully sooner rather than later. We don’t want that to happen in 2023, when the down season comes in April. We would like the seasonal drop to happen in February: more supply means less price growth and better affordability.
However, since mid-June, asset growth has slowed significantly, and mortgage rates are at 3-year lows. When mortgage rates fall below 6.64% and toward 6%, housing demand improves. In 2026, we should see long-term low prices compared to previous years, which could end up closing in on asset growth in 2026.
- Weekly inventory change: (Jan. 3-Jan. 10): Inventory decreased from 720,102 to 686,784
- The same week last year: (Jan. 4 -Jan 11 ): Inventory fall from 635,384 to 624,375
New listing data
The goal for new listings in 2026 is not just to get back to 80,000 new listings a week during peak times of the season, but to grow above 80,000 in other weeks. Last year, I was happy that we reached 80,000, which is the low end of the average new listing, as we usually range between 80,000-100,000, but once we got to that level, we didn’t see that much growth.
To give you another perspective, during the housing bubble years, new listings were rising between 250,000 and 400,000 per week for many years. Here is the last week’s listing data for the past two years:
- 2026: 39,007
- 2025: 44,639
Discount percentages
In a typical year, about one-third of homes receive a price reduction, highlighting the volatile nature of the housing market. Many homeowners are adjusting their selling price as inventory levels rise and mortgage rates remain high. In 2026, let’s see how the balance of supply and demand works when mortgage rates are close to 6%, not 7% or more, as the market has had to deal with from 2022-2025 in different areas.
By 2026, HousingWire’s forecast is for a -0.62% decline in home prices nationally, based on another year of property growth similar to last year. And if labor data improves, rates could rise to the upper range of my forecast. However, if asset growth slows and prices remain at 6.25% or less, that forecast is probably wrong as prices have seen firmer highs in the past few years when prices are closer to 6% with average asset growth.
One big difference this year compared to the last few years is that the supply shortage issue is over, meaning that supply will not be a major driver of prices. The demand side will need to play a bigger role in the story in 2026 for prices to continue to rise. Here is the percentage of last week’s price reduction over the past few years:
Housing prices and 10-year yields
In the HousingWire 2026 forecast, I expect the following range:
- Loan rates are between 5.75% -6.75%
- The 10-year yield fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.60%
HousingWire’s 2026 forecast excludes the 7 handle, as labor data softened in 2025 and mortgage spreads have almost returned to normal. With more rate cuts now in the works, the way back to the 4.40%-4.60% 10-year range is for the labor data to start improving – in other words, higher job growth numbers, lower unemployment, and wage growth as the Fed tries to sound hawkish. Of course, much will change with a new Fed Chair and potential new Fed governors.
Last week was a busy week, but not much has happened with the 10-year yield, as it has been on the low side for many months. As you can see in the chart below, it is trying to break above the 4.20% level, with no luck. The only variable for X of 2026 is that the bad claims start to rise to 323,000 – the 10-year yield of 3.80% will break, and mortgage rates will easily fall below 5.75% at that time. Mortgage rates briefly dipped to 5.99% on Friday, thanks to a historic day for mortgage spreads. They later stopped that move, but rates ended the week at 6.06%.
Mortgage spreads
Last week was very brutal; Mortgage spreads nearly returned to their historic normal range on Friday after President Trump announced Thursday that he wanted $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities purchases. This created 24-hour trading in those securities, leading to a sharp drop in spreads on Friday.
Mortgage spreads were the unsung hero of housing in 2025, and 2026 looks set to be another year of good news spreads. Historically, the typical spread has been between 1.60% and 1.80%. By 2023, they have risen to 3.11%. But since then, when the Fed said it was done hiking rates, spreads have been improving, as they often do at this stage of the cycle.
We will monitor this good story every day in 2026 because if spreads were as bad as they were in 2023, rates would be above 7% today, not close to 6%. If spreads improve to below 1.60% – which has not been on my radar this year – that will be good news for housing this year.
Mortgage application data
Staying true to my belief that weekly housing data should be taken with a grain of salt during the last two weeks of the year and the first week of the new year, I’m going to wait one more week before we start tracking general purchase demand data. This period is particularly affected by the holidays. We saw 10% year-over-year growth last week, but we have to question that number. Year-to-year comps will be more difficult in 2026, as the very low bar we had last year is over.
Total pending home sales for the week
The same year-end seasonal factors apply to our weekly home sales and weekly totals. We’re showing year-over-year growth here, and the tracker will be fully operational next week with our weekly demand data.
- 2026: 256,837
- 2025: 252,259
Next week: Headlines, plus new home sales, retail sales and Fed speeches
So far, 2026 has seen many headlines, and some of them have already had an impact on homes; expect more to come. We have a lot of data this week, including new home sales, retail sales, and PPI inflation, as well as Fed speeches.
With mortgage spreads close to normal, it will be key each week to see how the 10-year yield and bond markets react to economic data, but 2026 will be the first year in many years with spreads close to normal and more rate cuts already in the works.
