Is Bitcoin Repeating Its Black Bear Market History?

Bitcoin is outpacing past bear cycles, but analysts are warning that a 2026 rally near $35K could lead to a deeper decline despite current strength.

Bitcoin’s current bear market is ahead of previous activity cycles, but analysts warn that a deeper decline is still possible later in 2026.

Tracking Bitcoin Over Previous Bear Cycles

Bitcoin has fallen 32% since its peak of more than $126,000, which was reached in early October, 2025. In previous cycles, losses in this phase were larger, from 43% to 66%. This shows that the current cycle is less severe so far compared to 2014, 2018, and 2022.

However, this powerful position may not hold. Previous cycles have also seen periods of stability before steep declines near the end. CryptoCon, a market analyst, compared previous cycles and noted that they tend to follow different paths early on, but later align just before reaching their final lows.

Here is this year’s Bitcoin bear market compared to others (2014, 2018, and 2022).

The general assumption is that bear market declines decrease each cycle, and that has been the trend thus far. -86%, -84%, -77%.

Bitcoin is ahead now where it was at one time… pic.twitter.com/TxCeUri5wH

– CryptoCon (@CryptoCon_) January 28, 2026

Based on this pattern, the chart shows a possible confluence point in September 2026, when the price of Bitcoin is expected to reach $35,000. This is the level at which previous cycles began their final decline. CryptoCon said “only the last drop seems important,” identifying this period as a critical phase in the bear market.

If this cycle continues to follow the previous one, Bitcoin could reach a low between $28,000 and $17,000 between October and November 2026. The timing is also consistent with the Halving Cycles Theory, which predicts a decline between November 2026 and January 2027.

Recent Price Action and Market Volatility

At press time, BTC is trading around $88,000 with a daily trading volume of over $49 billion. In the last 24 hours, the price decreased by 1.5%, and in the last week, it decreased by about 2.5% (according to CoinGecko data).

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Yesterday, the tension was evident. BTC crossed $90,000 twice but quickly retreated. After the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, Bitcoin held above $89,000. However, this move led to widespread liquidation. More than 120,000 traders were forced out of positions, with a combined loss of nearly $350 million.

Analysts Point to Conflicting Signs

Some market watchers expect a correction soon.

“If the 4-year cycle is still playing out, $BTC will drop to $30,000 in February,” Chief wrote.

Others focus on long-term data. Kapoor Kshitiz noted that the Binance Reserve Cost exceeded $62,000, a level that has served as a low during previous bear phases. Bitcoin has not recovered this level since the approval of the ETF.

On-chain data shows that the share of BTC held at a loss is starting to rise again. This trend was preceded by bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022. While this does not guarantee a final low, it may indicate the beginning stages of a long decline.

At the same time, long-term holders have gone back to accumulating. CryptosRus said, “This looks a little like the top… and it’s like mixing before proceeding. “ Realized Cap also reached new highs, suggesting stable capital inflows.