The price of Dogecoin is currently up about 17% from its December 31 low and the rebound is starting to look less like a dead-cat bounce and more like a regime change, according to crypto analyst Cantonese Cat, who points to a clear shift in how DOGE is trading within its Bollinger Bands on the daily chart.
The setup is important now because the price has moved from months of pressure in the lower band to the upper part of the range, usually the early ones tell that the behavior of the trend is cyclical.
The recent daily observation of the Cantonese Cat (Binance) is based on Bollinger Band movement instead of pattern chasing. As the analyst put it: “DOGE every day shows a clear change of trend that is easy to see if you see that it has been climbing the lower part of the Bollinger band for months but now it has a clear change in character.”
That “character” is reflected in the mechanics of the band. DOGE closed around $0.1405 on the indicated print, now trading above the 20-day baseline near $0.1348 after spending most of the previous session leaning towards the lower part of the envelope. The upper band is near $0.1564 and the lower band is near $0.1132.
Related Reading
In the analyst’s frame, the baseline becomes the closest term to a “line in the sand” as to whether this is a true trend reversal or a fading volatility stretch. Holding above keeps the price in the upper part of the bands, where the trends usually behave differently than they do during the lower band ride.
Weekly and Monthly Chart Support Thesis
Reversing the picture, the weekly chart of the Cantonese Cat (Dec. 20) is spreading a broad structure like an Elliott-style sequence: a completed improvement of Wave 1 followed by a correction of Wave 2. The analyst wrote: “We already have a 13-month bear market for DOGE, with my working hypothesis of this likely to be a correction of wave 2 before the explosion of wave 3. The whole reason why this may play out is it doesn’t sound right now, and you want me to stop posting.
Related Reading
The levels in the chart are clear. DOGE is sitting between the 0.382 retracement near $0.1177 and the 0.5 level near $0.1542, with high retracement markers around $0.2021 (0.618), $0.2477 (0.707), $0.2968 (0.786), and $3.
Furthermore, the 1.0 level is labeled near $0.4844, with extensions to around $0.9029 (1.272), $1.2497 (1.414), $1.9934 (1.618), $4.7793 (2.0), and $8.9077 (2.272) of the analyst’s repeated Target. of the “$9 region” of this cycle.
On Jan. 9, Cantonese Cat paired the monthly chart of DOGE with iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), contradicting the bull phase rhythm: “DOGE has been lagging about 2-4 months behind IWM during the bull phase.”
The comparison highlights earlier situations where IWM behavior precedes major DOGE phases, meaning that the current DOGE development can be read as a delayed echo if the template holds.
Overall, the near-term question is whether DOGE can continue to close above the daily Bollinger base (~$0.1348) and avoid a pullback to the less than half level that defined the previous months. On the upside, a break above the upper band region (~$0.1564) and 0.5 Fib ($0.1542) is critical for further upside.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.13674.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
