Bitcoin Crashes In February, Yet HODLers And Mining Signals Support

Bitcoin is sliding in February, but strong miner and long-term holders indicate the possibility of price support.

In the opening weeks of February brought a strong diagnosis of the health of Bitcoin, about 43% of its supply is circulating in a state of loss and the quarterly performance of the price is just below -26%, according to analyst GugaOnChain.

According to them, it is unlikely that he will recover before April.

On-Chain Metrics Show Widespread Capitulation

In their latest assessment of the Bitcoin market, CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain painted a negative picture for the owners of the OG cryptocurrency. According to the analyst, 42.85% of the circulating Bitcoin supply is now underwater, while the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator has dropped to 21.30%, which is in a very scary area.

GugaOnChain’s analysis was supported by experts from XWIN Research, who noted that the recent reading of 8 in the Fear and Greed Index was a rare occurrence, appearing only in previous stress events, including the 2018 bear market crash, the March 2020 COVID crash, and the November 2022 FTX crash.

Analysts pointed out that from a behavioral finance perspective, this reflects loss aversion and herd behavior, where investors reduce risk exposure after a large loss.

If you look at the quarterly price performance, it stands at -25.8%, with GugaOnChain seeing little hope of recovery before Q2 2026. Additionally, Bitcoin ETF flows tell the same story of institutional fatigue. Since the start of the month, products have seen a total outflow of $2.17 billion, with the outflow accelerating as prices fell to $60,000 on February 6.

Verb Verb Shows Flexibility

Some recent research provides context for the scenarios described above. For example, the analytics company Santiment reported that the support rates for all trades turned negative, meaning that traders were positioned at the highest point for price declines.

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The movement of BTC prices shows the tension, with data from CoinGecko showing that the asset has fallen by about 3% in the last seven days, 10% in two weeks, and 28% in the whole of the last month, while it is trading about 46% below its October 2025 peak when it exceeded $ 126,000.

The decline in growth extends beyond Bitcoin itself, with GugaOnChain’s analysis showing a decline in the wider crypto economy, as mid-cap altcoins and small altcoins reached 18.3% while the growth rate of the top 20 assets folded by -12.48%.

However, even as prices drop, demand for accumulator addresses remains strong at 380,104 BTC over the past 30 days. Furthermore, miners seem to be holding their BTC rather than selling it, with their operations supported in part by AI revenue streams.

Taken together, the conditions described in GugaOnChain’s analysis make the current phase as defined by fear, defensive positioning, and selective accumulation with little confidence in the broader market. According to them, “the chance of recovery now depends on strengthening investors.”