A dramatic rise in the main factory gauge has traders rethinking risk, while crypto watchers debate whether Bitcoin will ride a new wave or remain stuck.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to an expansion spot in January, and that single data point caused a flurry of takeovers from market strategists and crypto analysts alike.
ISM Manufacturing Signals Shift
According to the Institute for Supply Management, the PMI came in at 52.6 in January. That number crosses the line that separates contraction from growth.
For investors watching the signals closely, such a move could mean that money is starting to flow back into assets that are seen as high risk.
“The previous outbreaks of 2013, 2016, and 2020 served as the primary triggers for Bitcoin’s bull run,” said Strive’s vice president of Bitcoin, Joe Burnett.
The Fed will take notice. A strong production print is changing the debate about inflation and rate policy. Traders are pricing in the opportunity for tighter policy when growth appears strong.
At the same time, some economists point out that productivity is only one part of the puzzle. Services, employment, and consumer demand are also important. Reports note that the index reading was the best since August 2022, which is noteworthy in itself.
One of the longest periods of contraction for the ISM Manufacturing PMI in US history ended this morning with a bump to 52.6, up 4.7 points from December.
Previous breakouts in 2013, 2016, and 2020 served as key triggers for the Bitcoin bull run.
This makes it 26 months in a row…
— Joe Burnett, MSBA (@IIIcapital) February 2, 2026
Bitcoin Price Action and Market Situation
The price of Bitcoin has changed. After hitting a high above $125,000 late last year, it fell back to the $78,000 level. Reports say that this decline followed a major foreclosure event and a major shock that pushed investors into safe assets.
Some consumers take the dip as an entry point. Others remained on the sidelines. Correlations with tech stocks have strengthened, meaning Bitcoin has behaved like a riskier asset than digital gold in recent months.
Source: ISM
A few traders argue that rising PMI readings often precede periods of “vulnerability”, when speculative bets return. However, this link is not ironclad. Bitcoin measures are created by liquidity flows, ETF inflows and outflows, geopolitical flare-ups, and crypto-specific events. The market is being pushed from several directions at once.
Who you can trust in Predictions
The voices of different institutions. Based on reports from various firms, estimates range from cautious to highly optimistic. One company is projecting a post-crash rally that could send prices above current levels by the end of the year.
One research house warns of further pullbacks ahead of any further upswing. The center’s biggest player declined to attach a number at all, calling it too chaotic an environment to predict with confidence.
That kind of scope tells a clear story: uncertainty rules. Analysts who tie Bitcoin to major cycles are gaining supporters, while those who treat it as an independent asset argue against a different playbook.
Why This Matters
Short-term traders will watch economic prints and liquidity data closely. Long-term holders will weigh the role of Bitcoin against gold and equities. Reports say that market structure—who’s buying, who’s selling, and where ETFs see flows—may be as important as any single economic issue.
A rise in the ISM may be the beginning of a healthy risk tone for global markets, but it will not by itself guarantee a strong climb for Bitcoin. Risk is back on the table, so to speak, and the way forward will depend on how policymakers, major investors, and traders react over the next few weeks.
Featured image from unsplash, chart from TradingView
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