Crypto Winter Has Been Here Since January 2025, But The Recovery May Be Closer Than You Think

Crypto trading has suffered the most since January 2025, while ETFs and DATs hide the real losses of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, according to Hougan.

The Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, Matt Hougan, said that the cryptocurrency market has been in full “crypto winter” since January 2025.

The exec said signs suggest the downturn may be closer to an end than a start.

The Good News Isn’t Driving Prices

In a recent post titled “The depth of Crypto Winter,” Hougan explained that, despite the continued positive progress in adoption, regulation and institutional involvement, the market is still in a severe bear market..

Hougan noted that Bitcoin is down about 39% since its October 2025 all-time high, while Ethereum is down 53%, with many other digital assets doing even worse. He said that this should not be interpreted as a short-term correction or a small dip, but rather as a deep bear market, drawn out similar to previous crypto winters, including those of 2018 and 2022. According to him, factors such as overvaluation and profit sharing by long-term owners have contributed to the current decline.

Despite developments such as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, who supports Bitcoin, increasing institutional employment in crypto, and increasing acquisitions by traditional financial companies, investor sentiment remains very cautious. Hougan said “Good news doesn’t matter in the winter,” and added that these market crises often end not with enthusiasm but with exhaustion and general sentiment.

The Bitwise CIO also said that institutional outflows played an important role in hiding the true extent of the recession in 2025. He cited data from the Bitwise 10 Large Cap Crypto Index, which showed that assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP experienced a slight decrease, between 10% and 20%, mainly due to the support of ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs).

Other assets, including Solana, Litecoin, and Chainlink, experienced bear market declines of 37% to 46%, while Cardano, Avalanche, Sui, and Polkadot saw losses ranging from 62% to 75%. Hougan explained that institutional access and investment through ETFs and DATs provided protection for other assets, while retail-oriented tokens bore the brunt of market downturns.

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For example, ETFs and DATs bought more than 744,000 Bitcoin during the period, representing about $75 billion in support. Without that institutional buying, he estimates that Bitcoin may drop by about 60% from January 2025. Therefore, several factors may indicate the end of the current crypto winter, according to Hougan, who also said:

“I think we’ll be roaring back soon. No, it’s been winter since January 2025. Spring is coming soon.”

BTC Global Standing Decreases

The depth of the current decline is also reflected in Bitcoin’s standing among global assets. As reported by CryptoPotato, Bitcoin has dropped out of the top ten assets by market capitalization and is now ranked 13th globally, according to CompaniesMarketCap data as of February 2.

Its market cap has fallen to about $1.56 trillion, down from $2.35 trillion back in July 2025, when it ranked sixth after meeting $119,000 a year ago.