The price of XRP can be bearish trading, but the offer managed by the exchange behind the scenes is indicative a practice that is not important to it price guidance in the coming months. A recent report from 21Shares shows that the exchange’s holdings have fallen to a seven-year low of 1.7 billion XRP. The report shows that liquidity stability, ETF demand, and investor behavior are muted potential price rankings for XRP in 2026.
Falling XRP Exchange Supply Meets ETF Demand
According to 21Shares, three pillars will change XRP’s price action in 2026: regulatory clarity, high investor demand for existing ETFs, and real-world adoption of XRPL. As noted in the report of a financial services company based in Switzerland, the exchange places around 1.7 billion XRP, its lowest level in seven years.
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This number is consistent for institutional demand in XRP ETFswhich meets a society that increasingly accepts the idea of holding. This reduction in the supply of merchandise is easily the cause of the indirect recall if it continues throughout the year. According to 21Shares, this is creating a frenzy that reflects GameStop’s evolution on Reddit.
ETF products in the US attracted more than 1.3 billion dollars in their first month in a record sequence of consecutive inflows regardless of market conditions. and derivatives of other crypto ETFs. That continued demand reflects, in the report’s view, a shift from speculative trading to structural capital allocation. This demand is still strong, although the total net income of these ETFs since then it has declined $1.18 billion at the time of writing.
The report also looked at the path set by the Bitcoin spot ETF as an analog, where about $38 billion in revenue helped double the price of Bitcoin from $40,000 to $100,000 in less than a year. Remembering this example, XRP’s very small market capitalization in ETF creation, about one-eighth of Bitcoin, means that income will have a proportionally large impact on price recovery. According to 21Shares, the currency velocity in XRP is likely to be high, which is expected to increase the dynamic price feedback loop if the income continues.
XRP Assets ETF. Source: 21shares
XRP Price Outlook for 2026
The 21Shares report envisioned 2026 as the year when XRP valuation will be impacted by a combination of regulated access, continued ETF flows, and significant RWA volume on the XRP Ledger. In terms of pricessets a 2026 scenario range centered on a base case peak of $2.45 (allocated 50% probability), a bull case peak of $2.69 (30%), and a bear case peak of $1.60.
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The base case assumes regulatory stability supports consistent ETF penetration and the gradual development of real-world usage, while the bull case relies on institutional-scale tokenization and strong liquidity that creates a strong pricing effect. The bear case, on the other hand, is tied to stagnant earnings and currency rotation away from XRP. Right now, XRP is trading in this bearish case, and the bulls are struggling to hold above $1.6.
The featured image was created with Dall.E, a chart from Tradingview.com
