Is ETH’s Next $1,500 After ‘Heavy Decline’?

Ethereum has entered an intense bearish phase, falling sharply after weeks of spreading near the upper boundary of its medium-term range. The main driver behind this move appears to be the recent escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which has forced risky assets into de-risking mode and exacerbated the technical weakness present in the ETH market.

The combination of high uncertainty, high potential, and a vulnerable chart structure produced a sharp relief rather than a controlled pullback.

Ethereum Price Analysis: Daily Chart

On the daily chart, ETH has broken from the previous rising structure extended from the end of 2025 lows and failed to break above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, now both located above the $3,000 mark. This price behavior confirmed the transition from a sideways corrective action to a clear downtrend.

The price also dropped below the first band of high demand in the $2,200-$2,000 area, which coincides with the previous consolidation base and the origin of the last strong move forward. The daily RSI has also crossed into the oversold area in the 20s, indicating extended short-term conditions.

However, as long as the market remains below the broken moving averages and previous support around $2,200, the broader framework continues to point to a bear market rally rather than a confirmed pullback.

ETH/USDT 4 Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart highlights the speed of the current sell-off, with ETH falling from the previously protected support of $2,800–$2,900 and stalling at intermediate levels. The market is now trying to stabilize between the $1,850–$1,900 range, and a slight bullish divergence is emerging on the 4-hour RSI, where momentum has started to print higher lows despite a slight price decline.

This setup usually indicates that forced selling pressure is easing and that a short-term bounce or side consolidation may follow.

Current resistance now sits in the $2,100–$2,200 area, with a strong supply area at $2,800. Any rebound below these bands would keep the intraday trend strong, while a clean break below the recent low of $1,800 would pave the way towards the much sought-after $1,500 area.

Analyzing Emotions

On the derivatives side, open interest in all Ethereum futures has fallen from highs of more than 30 billion USD to about a third of that size, tracking the decline in price and reflecting a larger decline in liquidation than a systematic reduction in positions. This sharp contraction in open interest indicates that a large portion of long-term leverage is forced out of the market, with margin calls and automatic transfers accelerating the decline if key support levels fail.

Although such events are painful in the short term, they tend to clean excess energy from the system, leaving a smooth background from which to flow spots and new funds, rather than exposure to dense derivatives, can play a major role in setting up the next move.