Bitcoin Long-Term Owners Show Early Signs of Taking

Long-term Bitcoin holders showed early approval as the LTH SOPR dipped below 1.0, showing some six-month-old holders sold at a lower price.

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing early signs of distress among long-term holders as the LTH SOPR (Used Profit Ratio) recently dropped below 1.0, indicating that some holders are starting to sell at a loss.

While isolated, this move reflects growing uncertainty in the market as BTC trades near $92,000 amid mixed technical signals.

This development is important because those holding BTC for more than six months have historically provided stability during price corrections. Their short-term sales may indicate temporary weakness or mood swings after months of accumulation.

Early LTH Capitulation and market reaction

The Long Term Manager’s SOPR measures whether BTC moved on-chain is sold at a profit or loss. A value above 1.0 indicates profit taking, while a decrease below 1.0 indicates bearishness, where owners are selling at a loss.

According to an analysis shared on January 13 by market watcher Darkfost, the Bitcoin metric that was held for more than six months fell slightly below this threshold. This behavior, they say, is often associated with bear market phases and points to selling pressure from long-term “small” holders who bought within the last 9 months and are now in the red.

This development occurred alongside significant reductions in positions by large investors. As previously reported, addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC differed from 220,000 BTC last year, the fastest rate of decline since early 2023.

While the 30-day average for LTH SOPR remains positive at 1.18, it remains below the annual average near 2.0, indicating a net decline in earnings.

You may also like:

Different Signals and Market Outlook

The market is now showing conflicting news. The LTH SOPR suggests vulnerability, but some analysts point to technical patterns that could create it. Chartist Egrag Crypto has highlighted a “hidden bullish divergence” on the weekly chart of Bitcoin, where the price is forming a low high while the RSI momentum indicator is making a low low, which could precede the continuation of the trend.

In addition, the Sell-Side Risk Ratio, a measure of the scale of profit and loss realized, has returned to the levels last seen in October 2023, which means that the distribution takes place with less certainty.

Looking ahead, BTC’s path seems to be leaning toward a clear break from its current range. In the past week, it has traded between $90,000 and $92,400, showing little volatility. Over the past 24 hours, the price has risen 1.7% to around $92,200, with short-term holders closing in on profits, as noted by investor CW.

Meanwhile, analysts suggest that retrieving the $92,000–$94,000 zone may trigger renewed buying, but repeated resistance attempts, which may be the eighth or ninth in recent weeks, according to Ted Pillows, may wear off the momentum.