Bitcoin Price Unlikely to See 77% Drawdown Again – Bitwise CIO

The price of Bitcoin has been in one of its worst trends in recent years, falling by double digits last week. Although the main cryptocurrency seems to have recovered in the past day, the one-day correction of 14% – on Thursday, February 5 – is an event that has put fear in the market, and rightly so. In their latest report, the famous researcher tried to come up with answers to the questions surrounding the current price of Bitcoin.
Crypto Bear Markets End in Fatigue, Not Joy – Bitwise CIO
On Friday, February 6, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, answered questions about the current structure and outlook for the price of Bitcoin. The CEO wrote why the market is down, if it will fall further, and what can help the price of BTC to reach the bottom.
Hougan began by noting that there is never a single reason why the crypto market falls, as many factors are often at play. In this latest correction, Bitwise CIO listed six possible factors, including the continuation of the four-year cycle, the loss of “conscious investors” in AI and metals, and the closing event on October 10.
It is important to note that the market and the price action of Bitcoin have not been the same since the significant explosion on October 10, 2025. This event of the end of history came out after the President of the United States Donald Trump announced a surprise tariff of 100% on all Chinese goods.
Other factors highlighted in the Bitwise report include concerns surrounding Kevin Warsh as chairman of the Federal Reserve, fears of quantum computing, and a sense of risk reduction. Significantly, it can be said that Bitcoin and the crypto market are not the only victims of this mood swing, as the mineral and stock markets have also seen significant declines.
Hougan noted that the good news is that the sell-off signs seem to be showing signs of exhaustion.
Bitwise CIO wrote:
According to onchain data, long-time owners have stopped selling aggressively, and some are starting to fold at the edges. Open interest in bitcoin derivatives trading has fallen to levels last seen in 2024.
Hougan went on to say that, if history is anything to go by, it is possible that the price of Bitcoin will continue to fall in the current structure. However, the investment expert also believes that the first cryptocurrency is a mature asset, and is unlikely to see a 77% correction like in the past.
While he can’t pinpoint the exact time Bitcoin’s price will bottom out, the Bitwise CIO revealed that the catalyst that could turn things around is just time. “Crypto bear markets often end in exhaustion, not excitement,” Hougan concluded.
Bitcoin Price At A Glance
As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $67,834, representing a jump of more than 4% in the last 24 hours.

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
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