Why This Bitcoin Bear Market Is Among The Worst: CryptoQuant Researcher
Bitcoin’s price is about 45% off its all-time high of $126,080, reflecting the extremely negative market climate of the past few months. One of the indicators confirming the emergence of a bear market was the breaking of the 365-day moving average to the negative late last year. Using this metric, a prominent crypto researcher has come forward with an analysis that shows how the current Bitcoin bear market compares to previous ones.
BTC Price Is 30% Below 365-Day Moving Average
In a new post on social media platform X, CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, revealed that the current bear market performance is comparable to what has been seen in Bitcoin’s recent history. The focus indicator of this analysis is the 365-day simple moving average (SMA) on the BTC price chart.
Moreno defined the beginning of a bear market as the moment when the price of Bitcoin crosses below the 365-day SMA. According to on-chain experts, the first cryptocurrency has fallen by 30% so far in the current phase, making it one of the worst bear periods in recent times.
Source: @jjcmoreno on X
As noted in the chart above, Bitcoin’s value is deeper than it usually appears in this phase of the bear market. During the bear market of 2014, the flagship cryptocurrency did not fall by 20% at this stage of the season.
The same can be said for the 2018 bear season, which was around 20% of the market at this stage. However, the price of Bitcoin may have come under great pressure during the 2022 season, as the market leader had dropped from its 365-day moving average by nearly 60% at this stage of the cycle.
This trend is particularly interesting, considering that Bitcoin is believed to have grown as an asset class. However, the world’s largest cryptocurrency still seems to be witnessing incredible levels of volatility at the start of a bear market.
Although it is unclear when the price of Bitcoin will bottom out, certain conditions need to be met for a change to occur. One such trend is the metric of perceived demand, which has continued to worsen over the past few weeks. As seen in the number of exits for US-based Bitcoin ETFs, currency restrictions have been a major problem for the early cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin Price At A Glance
As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $70,500, showing a jump of more than 2% in the last 24 hours.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
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