Since August 2025, XRP holders have increasingly spent their capital, adding to the selling pressure that has turned the asset’s on-chain profitability into a negative.
The last six months have been very stressful for XRP, the Ripple Network’s native cryptocurrency. Now, the stock appears to be flashing a capitulation signal as owners see huge losses amid panic selling.
Data from Glassnode shows that the on-chain profitability of digital assets has changed for the worse, with the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) decreasing from 1.16 on July 25, 2025, to 0.96 currently. Analysts say that the current setup mirrors the period from September 2021 to May 2022, when XRP’s SOPR falls in the <1 range. Long-term consolidation followed the sinking, leading to stability.
XRP Managers See Big Losses
Since August 2025, the price of XRP has been falling steadily, recovering for a while before resuming its decline. By the end of October, the price had fallen 27% from $3.5 in mid-July to $2.4. As the asset loses its value, long-term holders who had accumulated before November 2024 increased their spending by 580% from $38 million per day to $260 million per day.
Prices remained strong through early November, highlighting distribution weakness, not strength. Analysts noted that spending was unlike previous profit-taking waves that accompanied rallies. There was a clear signal that experienced traders were exiting their positions, adding pressure on the price of XRP.
By mid-November, XRP’s share of profit had fallen to 58.5%, the lowest since November 2024, when the asset was worth $0.53. Although XRP was trading at around $2.15 during that time, four times higher than the November 2024 price, more than 41% of the coin was sitting in losses. It was an indication that the market is very heavy, structurally fragmented, and dominated by late buyers.
Capitulation Signal or Structural Failure?
As the bears would have it, the price of XRP fell below $2 in mid-November, and the market’s 30-day moving average (30D-EMA) of daily observed losses rose to $75 million. Since the beginning of the year, investors have experienced between $500 million and $1.2 billion in weekly losses each time XRP retraces $2. $2 is now a huge psychological zone for XRP owners.
At the time of writing, XRP was trading at $1.40, losing its owner cost base, which explains the panic selling. Such moves have raised questions about whether the XRP market is in good shape or experiencing structural failure. Experts emphasize that the first is because the fundamentals are strong now, unlike in 2022, when there was no regulatory clarification.
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