Bitcoin’s recent slide has left traders staring at the charts and asking the same vague question: correction or crash? Prices have fallen sharply, but some market watchers still see this as a deep pullback within a long uptrend. Others warn the data points to something cold.
Related Reading
Price Decline and Strong Numbers
According to XWIN Research’s CryptoQuant analysis, Bitcoin is down about 46% from a peak near $126,000 and is now trading around $67,900 after five straight months of losses.
The Fear & Greed Index sits at 14 – reading labeled Extreme Fear. Reports note that losses recently reached more than $13 billion, a level similar to the worst decline of the 2022 recession.
By 2024, an estimated revenue of $10 billion helped propel the market. Then by 2025, more than $300 billion in inflows while the overall market value declined. That strange combination of high cash flow and falling market value suggests that selling pressure is higher than new buying.
How Prices Are Rising Masking the Silent Shift in Bitcoin’s Structure
“The basic scenario is that Bitcoin may already be entering winter, with high prices and a rigid structure that is delaying recognition.” – In @xwinfinance
Read more ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/fEsSXpAmuK
– CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 11, 2026
Capital Flows Versus Price Action
Based on the reports, the capital flow numbers are the most surprising fact for the bulls. Money came in, but the price went down. Who was selling to that demand? Large holders, stockbrokers, or complex derivatives desks may take profit or hedged positions.
The data alone doesn’t name the seller, but the pattern is a red flag. On-chain measures also reveal a decline in earnings as prices remain well above bearish levels. That tends to weaken the market’s internal power over time.
Emotions and Historical Echoes
Some traders point to a strange memory: high prices make the pain feel weaker. People don’t want to remember the chaos of 2022. Reports say that the introduction of existing ETFs and deep institutional access has changed the way market pipelines work, and that is giving many people confidence.
However, emotional readings with great fear often appear near the search sites. It is worth remembering that in 2022 losses appeared to increase about five months before the market’s decline, which means that large losses could precede the last long-term decline.
Technical Patterns And The Big Picture
Bitcoin has posted four months of losses in a row and a 41% decline over that span – a streak that was last seen in 2018 rather than 2022. That pattern is important because similar sequences have led to extended declines in the past.
Related Reading
Bitcoin At The Crossroads As XWIN Marks First Signs Of Crypto Winter
In XWIN research, the message is simple: price alone does not define the cycle. What matters is who is buying, who is selling, and whether demand can absorb supply without a decrease in market value.
Right now, that balance appears to be in trouble. Until the revenue starts to translate into stable market growth and the losses have cooled appreciably, the company believes that the market should be treated with caution rather than optimism. Winter may not be fully here yet, but based on the data, the temperature is clearly dropping.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
