The baby boom is credited with building American homes today as we know them. And now, amid an affordability crisis that has pushed the age of the first-time buyer into the 40s, the housing market may be shaping the baby boom.
In what has come to be known as America’s baby bust, the country’s fertility rate has dropped to an all-time low of 1.6 children per woman in 2024—less than 2 replacement rates. In the US as a whole, the share of the population under the age of 5 has decreased significantly over the past decade.
Although declining birth rates are a national issue, the pace of change is uneven. Some metros are seeing their young populations thin more quickly than others, even in areas that have long been considered family magnets.
A Realtor.com® analysis of US Census American Community Survey data from 2010 to 2024 shows that nearly every metro has lost ground when it comes to its share of people under 5, a sign that adults are outnumbering young children almost everywhere.
This is where the number of people under 5 is declining the fastest and a few areas where it is still growing.
Metros have the sharpest decline
The largest municipalities with the largest decline in share under 5 years are clustered in the West, particularly in areas that have attracted families.
But it’s important to be precise about what this measure takes: This is not the number of children born or children living in the metro. The under-5 share of the total population, which can be due to at least two different reasons: fewer young children, or the rapid growth of other age groups.
In many Western metros, that second shift is likely to apply. Over the past decade, these regions have attracted a large influx of working-age adults and retirees so the population has grown rapidly. Even if the number of young children holds firm or dips only modestly, the influx of adults can still reduce the under-5 share.
Then there is the fact that many of these metros started from a very high base in 2010.
Utah is a great example. Metros in the Beehive State had the highest shares under 5 years in the dataset, meaning they had more “room” to fall as interest rates cool and immigration slows.
In other words, these results do not automatically explain that these metros are losing children. Instead, they say that, compared to everyone entering and aging in the area, young children make up a small portion of the population.
Utah’s base is falling fast
Five of Utah’s highest drops are a surprising find given the state’s family-friendly reputation.
Logan, Ogden, Provo, and St. George all saw their share of children under 5 as their population decline by 3.2%, followed closely by Salt Lake City, which saw its share drop by 3.1%.
As previously noted, however, in 2010, these metros had the highest share of under-5s in the dataset, averaging 9.8% compared to an average of 6.5% for the dataset as a whole.
The shift to later childbearing, smaller families, and faster aging among adults could reduce that share rapidly—even if the total number of young children does not fall. At the same time, Utah’s growth has included a shift to working-age and older workers, which automatically lowers the under-5 share by increasing the denominator.
Why growing up in the West doesn’t always mean more children
Outside of Utah, the biggest declines in the under-5 population are seen in small Western metros—places like Grand Junction, CO, and Carson City, NV.
In Grand Junction, the share under five years fell from 6.6% in 2010 to 3.6% in 2024—among the lowest rates in the dataset. Carson City saw a similar slide, from 6.6% to 4%.
Like Utah’s municipalities, these cities have become destinations for retirees and lifestylers—people drawn to mountain views, low housing costs, or tax benefits. That kind of growth can reduce the share of young children even if the birth rate remains strong.
Similar rebalancing is seen in places like Farmington, NM (-2.6%) and Pocatello, ID (-2.5%)—both metros where job cycles and migration can be volatile. In small towns like these, a few shifts in major employers or changes in who moves in and out can quickly skew the age mix.
Rare metros where the under 5 share is growing
In the regression-dominated dataset, only a few metros moved in the opposite direction and posted an increase in the share of residents under the age of 5 between 2010 and 2024.
A standout is Kokomo, IN, where the share under 5 years grew from 5.4% to 6.4%—a net gain of 1%. A few others posted smaller gains, including Charlottesville, VA (+0.4%), and Decatur and Gadsden, AL (+0.2% each).
The fact that these metros are strong outliers may make them more interesting and worth watching, as they may provide the latest clues about what’s working when it comes to attracting and retaining young families in an era of declining fertility and rising costs.
Kokomo may provide a clear case study.
Far from the booming Sun Belt, this small industrial metro sits in Indiana’s Rust Belt and was hit hard by the Great Recession.
But over the past decade, the city has invested heavily in quality of life: new housing, renovated homes, expanded parks and trails, pedestrian walkways, and the return of public transportation with a free five-lane bus system, according to the City Journal. The goal was simple: Reverse the decline and make Kokomo a place where people want to live.
Those changes are important for one simple reason: They help families stay afloat. Many metros are losing tiny homes not because of a lack of demand, but because the housing is not compatible with the next phase of life. New York City is a clear example here: Between 2020 and 2023, the Big Apple lost 92,000 children under the age of 5 (17% of that number), while the average market price of an apartment increased by 30%.
If those rising costs were poison, Kokomo’s investment in walkable neighborhoods and affordable housing is the obvious antidote. It is the rare city that has tried to build with families in mind and its increase in children under the age of five seems to be a sign of success.
That’s exactly the kind of change Pawnee City, NE, is hoping for.
Through its Vision 2030 program, Pawnee City offers up to $50,000 in assistance to those purchasing newly constructed homes in the city’s revitalized neighborhoods. A bright tone and a strong tone: affordable housing, right-sized for modern families, and a strong welcome mat ahead.
Like Kokomo, Pawnee City understands that the future of cities depends on whether they can make room for families—not just retirees or remote workers, but homes that seek community, stability, and a path to ownership. And while the scale may differ, the playbook is remarkably similar: Build houses, improve quality of life, and let the numbers follow.
These outliers may not change the country’s trend overnight. But they are early signs that, with the right ingredients, it is still possible to raise the youngest generation, even in many of the areas listed.
