Bitcoin price remains in a fragile phase in its broader market structure, alternating between recovery efforts and great uncertainty. Structurally, the market is in a state of transition, as it leaves behind a pleasant expansion but is not yet fully operational.
Finally, the current price action reflects the tension between long-term holders and the flow of short-term speculation. However, on-chain data suggests that the first cryptocurrency may begin a further downward journey.
CVDD: Bitcoin’s Compass to Cycle Lows Since 2012
In a recent post on the X platform, market analyst Ali Martinez revealed that Cumulative Value – Days Destroyed (CVDD) identified the bottom of Bitcoin since 2012. According to the crypto pundit, the metric is one of the most respected chain-chain indicators for a long time to indicate a structural decline, and its current value is $45,225.
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Introduced by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009, CVDD is a long-term Bitcoin valuation metric designed to identify market bottoms by analyzing the behavior of long-term holders. To understand CVDD, one needs to see Coin Days Destroyed (CDD).
A CDD is the entire Bitcoin balance that remains immovable in a wallet. Now, CVDD tracks the historical accumulated number of days of the destroyed coin and adjusts it into a valuation model to generate a price level that corresponds historically to the major lows of the Bitcoin cycle.
Since 2012, CVDD has been marking Bitcoin price lows with incredible accuracy. The model measures when old, long-lived coins are spent. Because long-term holders tend to distribute near cycle peaks and accumulate during deep bear phases.
Is Bitcoin Sitting in a Hidden Safety Net?
Over time, CVDD has acted as a floor under the price during a major downturn. In previous cycles, including the bear market decline of 2015, the capitulation of 2018, and the sell-off of 2022, the price of Bitcoin often approached or briefly fell below the CVDD line before experiencing a long-term recovery.
Currently, CVDD is sitting at $45,225, a level that represents what many would consider a deep value area within the current market structure. It doesn’t necessarily mean that the price should drop to this level, but rather it serves as historically important support if broader market conditions continue to deteriorate..
When BTC trades comfortably above CVDD, it usually indicates that the market remains in a very positive position. Meanwhile, when the price of Bitcoin is depressed, sentiment tends to be pessimistic, and long-term accumulation tends to tighten.
As Bitcoin consolidates within its current range, it may help to monitor whether the price maintains sufficient distance above the CVDD level of $45,225. A decisive step towards it would indicate deep corrective pressure, while continued strength above it strengthens the argument that the broader cycle remains structurally intact.
As of this writing, BTC is valued at around $70,000, representing a modest price increase of around 2% over the past day.
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Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
