Bob Murphy: Gold is preferred over Bitcoin due to economic uncertainty, central banks ending dollar hegemony, and the US losing its superpower status

Important takeaways

• In times of economic uncertainty, gold is often preferred over Bitcoin as a safe haven.
• The global economic landscape is changing towards a more multilateral world, diminishing the role of the US as a dominant superpower.
• Central banks are swapping their reserves away from the US dollar, signaling the end of dollar hegemony.
• Tensions between the executive branch and the Federal Reserve highlight uncertainty about the central bank’s performance.
• Concerns about the housing market in 2026 are tied to Federal Reserve policy adjustments.
• The Federal Reserve holds more treasury securities than the next five or six countries combined, underscoring its power.
• A one percent shift in the Treasury yield curve can significantly increase annual interest costs.
• The independence of the Federal Reserve has historically been intertwined with political influences, questioning its true independence.
• The Fed’s actions during high government deficits are consistent with monetary strategies and policies.
• The Fed has deviated from its original purpose, and there are calls to restore its independence.
• Economic policy is closely linked to political influence, which affects market behavior.
• The Federal Reserve’s role in government financing is large, contributing to financial stability.

Guest introduction

Bob Murphy is a Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute and Chief Economist at infineo. He previously served as an Assistant Research Professor at the Free Market Institute at Texas Tech University. He holds a PhD in economics from New York University and applies Austrian economics to topics including gold and bitcoin.

Asset preferences in times of economic uncertainty

• Gold is often seen as a safer asset than Bitcoin in times of uncertainty. – Bob Murphy

• If there was real uncertainty about you know what’s going to happen next month I think you’re going to see you know people running into precious metals like security you know kind of panic mode.

  – Bob Murphy

• Investors may sell crypto holdings to increase capital in uncertain times. – Bob Murphy
• The idea of ​​safety in traditional assets like gold remains strong. – Bob Murphy

• It is possible that people are actually selling some of their crypto assets to raise money.

  – Bob Murphy

• Understanding the behavior of investors in crisis situations is important. – Bob Murphy
• Gold’s historical role as a safe haven influences current market dynamics. – Bob Murphy
• Gold’s preference over Bitcoin highlights the perceived strength of traditional assets. – Bob Murphy

The changing global economic environment

• The future will likely see a multipolar world, reducing US dominance. – Bob Murphy

• I think we are beginning to see the emergence of the US as a world superpower.

  – Bob Murphy

• Current geopolitical trends suggest significant changes in global finance. – Bob Murphy
• The implications for currency stability are profound in a multipolar world. – Bob Murphy

• Twenty years from now it will be a mixed world and the US will not be running this game.

  – Bob Murphy

• Shifts in US dominance affect global economic stability. – Bob Murphy
• Understanding geopolitical dynamics is important for future economic forecasting. – Bob Murphy
• Global growth is challenging US economic influence. – Bob Murphy

Strategies for differentiating large banks

• Major banks are moving away from the US dollar in reserves. – Bob Murphy

• Central banks are diversifying… the days of dollar hegemony are over.

  – Bob Murphy

• These changes may affect the stability of the world economy and the value of the dollar. – Bob Murphy
• Diversification strategies reflect changes in monetary policies. – Bob Murphy
• The end of dollar hegemony marks a fundamental change in global finance. – Bob Murphy
• Understanding reserve currency dynamics is important in economic analysis. – Bob Murphy
• Divergence away from the dollar highlights changing global priorities. – Bob Murphy
• The actions of central banks reflect important changes in monetary policy. – Bob Murphy

Tensions between the executive branch and the Federal Reserve

• The tensions reflect broader uncertainty about the central bank’s performance. – Bob Murphy

• There is that kind of thing in rhetoric that there are certain funny aspects of it.

  – Bob Murphy

• The complex relationship between political organizations and economic policy is important. – Bob Murphy
• Understanding the dynamics of US monetary policy is essential to analyzing market behavior. – Bob Murphy

• Another form of disagreement between what the feds are doing in the white house and so that was resolved…

  – Bob Murphy

• Political influence affects the performance and decisions of the central bank. – Bob Murphy
• The interaction between politics and economics shapes financial markets. – Bob Murphy
• The tension highlights the challenges of balancing political and economic interests. – Bob Murphy

Concerns about the housing market

• Concerns about the housing market in 2026 are tied to Federal Reserve policies. – Bob Murphy

• I have been telling you that you know our clients and my concerns about real estate you know in 2026 for this reason…

  – Bob Murphy

• Adjustments in Federal Reserve policy can affect the stability of the housing market. – Bob Murphy
• The forecast provides a specific timeline of potential market shifts. – Bob Murphy
• Understanding the current policies of the Federal Reserve is essential to the analysis of the housing market. – Bob Murphy
• The future of the housing market is tied to broader economic policy decisions. – Bob Murphy
• Investors and analysts must consider possible changes in the housing market. – Bob Murphy
• The Federal Reserve’s influence on housing market trends is significant. – Bob Murphy

The great influence of the Federal Reserve

• The Fed holds more treasury securities than the next five or six countries combined. – Bob Murphy

• If you look at the Fed as a foreign country it is currently holding more treasury securities.

  – Bob Murphy

• The Fed’s influence on the financial system is enormous. – Bob Murphy
• Understanding the Fed’s interest rates is important in analyzing monetary policy. – Bob Murphy

• 4,000,000,000,000 and change than the next five or six countries combined.

  – Bob Murphy

• The Fed’s role in government financing affects financial stability. – Bob Murphy
• Comparisons with other countries highlight the strength of the Fed. – Bob Murphy
• The Federal Reserve’s large holdings affect US monetary policy. – Bob Murphy

The impact of interest rate changes on the national debt

• A one percent shift in the treasury yield curve can increase costs. – Bob Murphy

• Just shifting the treasury yield curve up one percent… that’s $380,000,000,000 in annual interest costs.

  – Bob Murphy

• Changes in interest rates have important financial implications for the national debt. – Bob Murphy
• Understanding the effects of interest rates is important for financial stability. – Bob Murphy
• The financial impact of interest rate changes is huge. – Bob Murphy
• Analyzing interest rate changes is important in analyzing debt servicing costs. – Bob Murphy
• The movement of the treasury yield curve affects the cost of government debt. – Bob Murphy
• The impact on the national debt highlights the importance of interest rate control. – Bob Murphy

The Federal Reserve realized independence

• The independence of the Fed has historically been related to political implications. – Bob Murphy

• I think yes the feed has always been political in fact the apparent independence was officially established only after the second world war.

  – Bob Murphy

• The idea of ​​independence challenges conventional wisdom about the Fed. – Bob Murphy
• Understanding the historical context of the Fed’s role is important. – Bob Murphy

• This idea of ​​independence is a recent claim….

  – Bob Murphy

• The performance of the Fed is influenced by political factors. – Bob Murphy
• A facade of independence affects the public’s perception of the Fed. – Bob Murphy
• Analyzing the Fed’s historical role provides insight into its current performance. – Bob Murphy

Strategic alignment of Fed actions and monetary policies

• The Fed’s actions during high deficits are consistent with monetary strategies and policies. – Bob Murphy

• I don’t think it was a coincidence that the feds decided they wanted to load up on the treasury debt when the federal government was issuing more.

  – Bob Murphy

• The timing of the Fed’s actions reflects broader financial trends. – Bob Murphy
• Understanding the interplay between government spending and Fed actions is important. – Bob Murphy
• The Fed’s monetary policy decisions are linked to monetary policies. – Bob Murphy
• Strategic alignment highlights the relationship between the Fed and government actions. – Bob Murphy
• The Fed’s role in monetary policy is important in times of high deficits. – Bob Murphy
• Analyzing the Fed’s actions provides insight into broader economic trends. – Bob Murphy

Restoring the independence of the Fed

• The Fed has strayed from its original purpose and needs to regain its independence. – Bob Murphy

• Besson… he was saying that we need to restore the independence of the feds in the sense that they need to return to… their original calling.

  – Bob Murphy

• The current performance of the Fed influences economic policy. – Bob Murphy
• Restoring independence is essential to effective monetary policy. – Bob Murphy
• The Fed’s deviation from its mission affects its role in the economy. – Bob Murphy
• Understanding the historical role of the Fed is important to policy analysis. – Bob Murphy
• Independence calls reflect concerns about the Fed’s current outlook. – Bob Murphy
• The impact of Fed policies on economic stability highlights the need for independence. – Bob Murphy