Michael Lewis: NFL shortages drive fan loyalty, why quality and exclusivity are important to podcasting, and how obstacles are fueling innovation

Key Takeaways

• The lack of NFL games enhances their event-driven nature, increasing their overall value.
• Quality and scarcity are key to creating a successful podcast.
• Embracing obstacles can lead to new and successful business models.
• Focusing on successful corporate acquisitions provides a unique perspective on journalism.
• Warren Buffett’s approach to deals has changed, affecting his view of the market.
• Having a “heaviest pile” in decision-making allows prioritizing high-value opportunities.
• Podcasting’s subscriber base ensures audience retention without algorithmic interference.
• Timeless content creation ensures that episodes remain relevant over time.
• A compelling podcast episode needs a hero’s journey, a hidden secret, and global significance.
• External market conditions can have a significant impact on podcast revenue and strategy.
• The principle of obsolescence in content creation maintains long-term relevance.
• The pivot of the podcast strategy was driven by a sharp decline in revenue.

Guest introduction

Michael Lewis is a contributing editor at Vanity Fair and the host of Apple’s #1 rated podcast Against the Rules. He previously worked as a bond trader at Salomon Brothers, an experience that inspired his best-selling book Liar’s Poker. His books, including Moneyball, The Big Short, and The Blind Side, have been adapted into major motion pictures.

A deficit advantage in the NFL

• The limited number of NFL games creates a unique, event-driven experience.

• The product is in short supply… with the NFL because the product is in short supply and they’ve invested in that smartly and made it very scarce in an event-driven game that has made a difference.

  — Michael Lewis

• Sports scarcity can improve consumer engagement and perceived value.
• The NFL’s strategy is at odds with other sports with more frequent plays.
• Event-driven sports can encourage high attention and loyalty from fans.
• The NFL’s lackadaisical approach has been a key factor in its success.
• Understanding scarcity can provide insights into successful business models.
• The NFL model shows the power to create excitement and exclusivity.

Quality and scarcity in podcasting

• Quality and scarcity are key elements of a successful podcast.

• I think quality and scarcity have become an important part of acquisition and somehow we like to learn that from Hermes.

  — Michael Lewis

• Scarcity can set a podcast apart in a crowded market.
• High-quality content attracts and retains a loyal audience.
• Embracing scarcity can lead to a more focused and impactful content strategy.
• A balance of quality and scarcity can drive long-term success.
• Scarcity can create a sense of exclusivity and audience value.
• Learning about luxury brands can inform podcasting techniques.

Accepting barriers to innovation

• Constraints can lead to unique and successful business models.

• Maybe if we just admit that we’re under a lot of pressure and just try to lean into that restraint… it turns out to be good business.

  — Michael Lewis

• Obstacles can encourage creativity and innovation in content production.
• Acknowledging limitations can lead to strategic success.
• Obstacles can force a focus on core strengths and priorities.
• Accepting limitations can lead to authentic and unique content.
• Barriers can act as a catalyst for innovation and differentiation.
• Limited liability can result in a strong business model.

Good focus on journalism

• Focusing on successful corporate procurement offers a unique perspective.

• It’s interesting to me that your first step right from the start is hopefully like what worked and what didn’t work… let’s try to reverse engineering what works why things work so that area starts different from almost all journalism.

  — Michael Lewis

• Highlighting achievements can provide valuable insights into business strategies.
• Focusing on the positive is the opposite of journalism’s emphasis on failure.
• This approach can inspire and inform the audience about successful practices.
• The right storytelling can differentiate content from a media environment.
• Success stories can provide lessons and frameworks for replication.
• Focusing on achievements can change perceptions and stories in journalism.

Warren Buffett’s revolutionary approach

• Warren Buffett’s approach to deals has evolved over time.

• He may have started to look like what he says he is but he has become something very different in the market and his money is not like other people’s.

  — Michael Lewis

• Buffett’s changing role reflects shifts in the financial market.
• His evolution affects the way he is viewed and his impact on deals.
• Understanding Buffett’s approach can provide insight into market dynamics.
• His techniques highlight the importance of practice in business.
• Buffett’s evolution emphasizes the need for flexibility in investment methods.
• Seeing his changes can inform strategic financial decision-making.

Decision-making costs and opportunities

• It is acceptable to have a “heavy weight” in decision making.

• A hard pile means no technology is a hard pile… basically admitting that since our opportunity costs are so high like the things we say yes to are so good that it’s okay to say hard on most things.

  — Michael Lewis

• Prioritizing opportunities based on potential value is important.
• The “heaviest pile” concept helps focus on high-impact opportunities.
• This method acknowledges the high probability cost of following certain paths.
• Strategic decision making involves knowing when to pass on opportunities.
• The concept highlights the importance of prioritizing business.
• Understanding opportunity costs can improve strategic focus and efficiency.

Podcasting subscriber base

• Podcasting has a unique subscriber base that ensures audience retention.

• Podcasts are unique because they have that real subscriber base but unlike anything else where you click to subscribe there is no algorithmic platform that separates you.

  — Michael Lewis

• The lack of algorithmic interference separates podcasting from other platforms.
• Subscriber loyalty is the main strength of podcasting.
• Podcasts can create a direct relationship with their audience.
• The platform architecture supports consistent interaction and maintenance.
• The Podcasting model allows for more control over content distribution.
• Understanding these dynamics can inform audience growth strategies.

Expiration of content creation

• The principle of timelessness ensures that episodes remain relevant.

• Everything we do must be sustainable… we want to achieve 80% of our net worth in five years from now to some content.

  — Michael Lewis

• Timeless content retains its value over time.
• This approach prioritizes long-term trends over short-term trends.
• Creating timeless content can improve the health and impact of a podcast.
• Focusing on timeliness can isolate content in a fast media environment.
• Timeless content supports sustained audience engagement and interest.
• This goal can guide the planning and production of strategic content.

Features a compelling podcast episode

• Three key elements make a compelling podcast episode.

• There are three things that make a good first episode there is a heroic hero character who goes on a hero’s journey where we go from the unknown to the universe… two that there is a secret that is hiding in plain sight… and our third way is that it has to matter to the world.

  — Michael Lewis

• A hero’s journey narrative enhances storytelling and engagement.
• The presence of a hidden secret adds intrigue and depth.
• Global importance ensures episodic relevance and impact.
• These criteria guide the selection of podcast topics and narratives.
• Understanding these elements can improve content creation strategies.
• This framework supports the development of meaningful and engaging episodes.

Strategic pivot in response to declining revenue

• The decline in podcast revenue led to a strategic pivot to a content focus.

• 22 FTX it happens that interest rates are going up you know the podcast advertising market is falling off a cliff our revenue is down 40% so we left this country it wasn’t a business I went full time we made the business do amazingly well from ’20 to ’22 to ’20 from ’20 to ’21 to ’22 right and then overnight our revenue dropped 40%.

  — Michael Lewis

• External market conditions have had a significant impact on podcast revenue.
• The decline in revenue necessitated a review of the content strategy.
• Key pivots can be important in responding to market changes.
• Understanding market conditions can inform effective strategic planning.
• The experience highlights the importance of flexibility in business operations.
• Fluctuations in revenue may drive new strategies and strategic shifts in focus.