Ric Edelman says Bitcoin could reach $500,000 by the end of the decade and, unlike most headline-grabbing predictions, he puts some simple math behind it.
In an interview on Feb. 15 and Altcoin Daily, a long-time financial advisor and founder of Edelman Financial (now managing about 330 billion dollars, by his own account) put his goal as a “conservative” case in a series of abusive calls circulating in crypto. “I believe Bitcoin can reach $500,000 by the end of the decade,” Edelman said. “And there are other predictions that are much bolder than mine… many are predicting a million. Some are predicting numbers as high as 2 to 5 million.”
Why Edelman Calls $500,000 Bitcoin ‘Conservative’ By 2030
What he’s against, he said, is not optimism, it’s a lack of revealed thoughts. “The problem I have with a lot of predictions is that they don’t show up. They haven’t explained why they believe what they’re saying,” Edelman said. “So I’m going to come out and tell you how I’m getting to 500,000 by 2030… this is not a straight line… there’s going to be a lot of bumps along the way.”
Edelman’s case hinges on a broad shift in global portfolio design, not a single catalyst. He says Bitcoin is still not yet a “mainstream investor” globally but that acceptance could grow through private channels and institutions over time. He listed potential buyers across the spectrum of money: “government shares, sovereign wealth funds and institutions, endowments, pension funds, hedge funds, insurance companies, banks, brokerages, etc.
From there, Edelman zooms in on the size of the global asset pool. He estimated the combined value of the world’s stocks, bonds, real estate, gold, and cash at about $750 trillion. An important step is a piece of the portfolio: if various investors finally allocate 1% to Bitcoin, that means about 7.5 billion dollars, which they say can translate to $ 500,000 per coin when combined with the current price of Bitcoin.
“It’s simple arithmetic,” Edelman said. “If you take the attitude… that everyone who holds a diversified portfolio ends up with 1% of their portfolio in Bitcoin – that’s $7.5 trillion in revenue…
He added two reinforcing ideas: that dividends are already happening, and that if they do happen they may be larger than 1%. “We’re starting to get… more and more people donating,” she said. “And… they share about 5% of the goods.”
While Edelman emphasized Bitcoin’s long-term adoption curve, he also took issue with the broader issues of the crypto stack, particularly Ethereum, which he tied to stablecoin growth. He called it “ridiculous” that investors could be bullish on crypto while simultaneously being bullish on stablecoins, given where most of that activity resides today.
“If you believe that stablecoins are a winner, how can you be a supporter of Ethereum? Because almost all stablecoins trade on Ethereum,” said Edelman. Pressed for a number, he suggested that Ethereum could reach “between $4,000 and $10,000,” adding that a doubling would be “very easy to raise” in his opinion.
At press time, BTC traded at $68,986.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
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