Dogecoin is flashing a rare weekly “bearish cross” just as traders are debating whether last week’s wash of $0.08 was a cyclical reset or the first leg down. The setup is more important than DOGE itself because the flow of memecoin is increasingly being treated as a proxy for risk appetite across crypto.
Is Dogecoin Down?
The chart shared by Charting Guy shows the 20-week EMA crossing below the 200-week EMA, a technical event that he says has historically been associated with DOGE capitulation. “DOGE tends to focus when the 20-week EMA falls below the 200-week EMA. That happened last week,” he wrote, adding that he “increased my position by 50% on the lows” and that his community had received buy alerts.
That framework conflicts with more careful range-based readings from other analysts who look at spatial structure rather than the moving signal alone.
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Daan Crypto Trades described the bounce after the dip as positive, but clearly classified it as a range trade rather than a trend confirmation. “DOGE A decent price action here in the last few days after a big test of $0.08 last week. Right now we see this area of $0.08-$0.13 as a big range,” he posted.
“Anything above that point would give me confidence to move forward towards the Daily 200MA/EMA. Right now near the midpoint it’s very difficult to take a direction here with the way it’s trading.”
On his chart, DOGE/USDT was sitting in the middle of that band near $0.10–$0.11, with an upper range marker around $0.132 and a lower boundary near $0.088. In other words: it’s not a pure trend, not a pure revolution, just a market waiting to be pushed.
That “waiting” can cost some serious coin. Aphractal CEO João Wedson voiced the spotlight, warning: “If you take too long in Doge, you will probably be finished soon!”
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The combined closing heat map shared by Alphractal highlights why this warning is relevant to derivatives traders: the thick bands of possible closing levels remain below the current price for the past three days, suggesting that the stop-driven movement may decrease if the DOGE begins to trend instead of cutting.
Wedson also pointed out that DOGE rallies can act as Bitcoin’s broader volatility, calling it a “danger signal for Bitcoin” and saying it “usually happens when Bitcoin goes sideways.”
Alphractal emphasized the cyclical narrative in the long flowing note. “In the past few days, memecoins have outperformed BTC and other altcoins. The most prominent was Dogecoin, whose trading volume exceeded all others in its category,” the account wrote. “However, in the last few hours, memecoins have started to correct while BTC remains stable.”
The near term map is clean even if the conviction is not. Bulls need a decisive retracement of the highs of the $0.08–$0.13 range to re-open the path towards the daily 200 MA/EMA that Daan has marked. Bears, on the other hand, will focus on whether the market revisits the $0.08 area and that level holds the second test played by the closing bands.
At press time, Dogecoin traded at $0.10.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
