Active Supply Plateaus As Price Volatility Fades

Silent networks and passive offers point to social incentives, which often precede changes in sentiment and price narratives.

Bitcoin has been trading in the mid-$60,000s after losing significant ground since its 2025 close. It failed to recover the psychologically significant $70,000 limit despite several attempts.

The on-chain activity of the world’s largest cryptocurrency and blockchain shows signs of stopping, according to data shared by Alphractal.

Bearish Divergence Forms

The firm reported that the active supply of Bitcoin has stopped growing, indicating that fewer BTC are moving across the network, and overall activity has slowed. The recent decline goes beyond market structure and reflects “global human behavior,” as weak prices and rising uncertainty have made participants less willing to act.

Alphractal explained that owners are increasingly keeping coins idle, which has resulted in a quiet network. This stage is described as “social motivation” in the on-chain, between emotional exhaustion, reduced engagement, and lack of confidence. Such changes in behavior often precede broader market narratives.

Santiment’s data also reported a significant decline in Bitcoin network activity compared to 2021 levels, with 42% unique BTC addresses making transactions and 47% fewer new addresses being created. These trends do not mean that crypto is “dead” or that a multi-year bear market is inevitable. However, the statistical platform highlighted a clear bearish divergence developed in 2025, as the market capitalization continued to reach higher values ​​as the BTC on-chain resource decreased.

Collecting Whales is Fast

Even though on-chain participation is declining, the accumulation of large BTC holders has accelerated. The Bitcoin whale collection has risen above 200,000 BTC in recent weeks. While the influx of whaling into the trade has begun, a trend often linked to short-term trade, overall whaling has continued to rise.

To assess behavior over the long term, CryptoQuant tracks whale supply using a monthly average rather than a short-term flow. This metric fell sharply to around 7% on December 15 but has since reversed, with whaling up 3.4% over the past month.

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During this time, the amount of Bitcoin held by whales grew from 2.9 million BTC to over 3.1 million BTC. CryptoQuant noted that a similar amount of accumulation occurred during the April 2025 market correction, when whale buying helped absorb selling pressure and boosted BTC’s rally from $76,000 to $126,000. Since Bitcoin is 46% below its peak, the current level may encourage some large holders to accumulate.