Bitcoin’s slide to the $60,000–$70,000 area has lit up the usual “bottom” dashboards: a lot of fear, a washed-out area, and a set of indicators that many traders take as signs of capitulation. But CryptoQuant contributor Mignolet says the market is missing the only thing that ultimately matters: a visible bid from serious buyers.
“My estimate of $80K–$90K remains the same,” he wrote on Feb. 18. “Many indicators followed by market participants point to low and extreme fears. However, we do not see dominant players (whales) actually exploiting this situation.”
Mignolet’s main argument is simple: the low is not an emotional read, it is an event and he does not see the kind of forced absorption that often marks a strong turn. “No matter how many indicators point to the downside, if there’s no real buying power coming in, we won’t know where the real will be,” he said. “That’s why I don’t make price predictions easily.”
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He compared the current tape to the bull cycle of 2024, when fear may still dominate the headlines as major suppliers quietly take sides. At the time, he says, the market had a measurable backstop: institutional demand from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, particularly BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC, “clearly held the selling pressure.”
“The most important point,” in his formulation, is that the same mechanics are not visible now. Mignolet says that FBTC’s year-long rallying pattern “has already broken,” and IBIT, which was previously described as a buffer during intense selling pressure, “is now going down, unlike last year.”
That change is why he keeps the lower call “on ice,” even if the price ends up holding the current position. In his opinion, Bitcoin remains at a stage where traders should “beware of more shocks,” and even a successful defense may need time before it is treated as warranted.
When Everyone Reads the Same Bitcoin Data
Beyond the flow, Mignolet also warns about a structural change in the way markets are discussed. He argues that the proliferation of on-chain analytics has made the space more informative, but not more insightful and in some cases, more dangerous.
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“The problem is that everyone looks at the same data and often reaches the same conclusions,” he wrote. “In many cases, even the people who generate the data don’t fully understand it. When information becomes widespread, it pushes expectations in one direction.”
He describes today’s well-packaged on-chain dashboards as “clean and convincing, almost like an answer sheet,” which can reinforce conviction precisely when flexibility is needed. He suggests that the downstream risk is that widespread agreement around the “obvious” could keep investors stuck in deeper declines or longer grinding periods.
In the near term, Mignolet’s base case is not pure trend reversal but “lateral movement without clear direction,” with enough volatility to create opportunities for short-term traders. In his own words, he described the period as “waiting,” stepping back to watch “liquidity flows, supply and demand conditions, and overall market sentiment,” and then “reworking” his framework.
The big picture, he says, is still strong and may draw more than he expected last year. His closing warning is that this downward cycle is “unlikely to end slowly,” with the tangible results being a bigger-than-expected downturn, a longer-than-expected sideways phase, or both.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $67,889.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
