Luxury dealers say the work done on the floor shows the numbers.
“I have never found a single person who told me that he will leave New York City, and I am working at a much higher level than before (Mamdani) was mayor, even if we did not know that he would be mayor,” The Recommended Team at Compass founder Zeve Salman told HousingWire. “I’ve never felt a big drop in what’s happening in the market. It’s been the opposite.”
Salman said that no contracts fell through due to political issues and none of the vendors mentioned Mamdani as the reason for being withdrawn from the list.
He said: “This is New York, we’ve been beaten. We’ve had bad mayors, we’ve had good mayors. We’ve had important events here, and the city is always pushing. Not a single person has ever told me that they are leaving the city because of this, and I have never made a deal with someone who left a deal because of Mamdani. I did not sell the apartment because the seller is leaving. It’s become normal.”
Frances Katzen, founder and leader of Douglas Elliman-related The Katzen groupdescribed a partial suspension of the mayoral election – followed by aggressive placement of wealthy consumers.
“Anytime you have an election year, there’s always this kind of caution of, ‘Do I do it or do I wait?'” she said. “What happens is that people evaluate the risk versus the maximum reward, and New York is one of those capitalist cities that always surprises people.
“So, that high-end buyer is buying like a stock. They’re all still trying to get into the unknown.”
History of post-election flight warnings
Warnings that wealthy citizens will “flee” cities or counties after election results are a recurring theme in US political discourse.
After the 2018 passage of California’s Proposition 15, critics warned of a huge outflow.
However, analysis from California Budget & Policy Center found little evidence of mass migration associated with tax reform.
Similarly in 2021 and 2022, widespread comments suggested that tech executives were leaving cities like San Francisco because of progressive policies and high costs.
Reporting from Reuters and other agencies has shown that corporate migration has more complex motivations than political rhetoric.
Studies of regional-to-regional migration patterns by National Bureau of Economic Research show that tax policy and electoral outcomes have only negative effects on the migration decisions of the rich over time.
Katzen said that in a recent period, there were 22 condo deals, seven co-ops and 13 properties that traded for more than $10 million — including two of his own, one for $17.5 million.
Inventory constraints are at the heart of the dynamics and shortages increase competition among cash-rich buyers.
About two-thirds of Manhattan transactions are all cash, but Katzen said handling cash is less disruptive than in previous cycles.
“It used to be that cash was king, because no one wanted to deal with the pain of a credit check or being late,” he said. “But it’s very efficient now. A lot of people put down a lot of money, even if they’re financing, and these guys work fast to make loans. Banks don’t make money without lending, so they’re very efficient.”
The debate about taxes is growing
The market tightening comes as Mamdani is pushing proposals that include a possible 2% city property tax – and talks of a 9.5% property tax increase if approval of the state’s property tax fails.
Katzen warned that any situation is dangerous.
“(A wealth tax) is going to keep out a lot of the rich, the very rich,” he said. “Then, you’ve got that 9.5% tax (for goods). [and] that’s not cheap for families and growing businesses. It’s not good anyway. Either way, someone is hurting, and there will be an impact. “
Mamdani has proposed a series of tax increases for high earners to help close an estimated $5.4 billion budget gap in the 2027 fiscal year. His plan includes a 2% fee on annual revenue over $1 million, which is expected to generate about $4 billion annually.
Administrators say the revenue will fund universal child care, affordable housing, education and transportation. The mayor also pointed out that targeting the estimated 33,000 highest earners would prevent a 9.5% property tax increase for residents across the city and protect middle-income households.
Salman suggested that political instability is a constant part of the city’s residents’ long-term vision.
“We live here knowing that it is difficult to live here,” he said. “We know that it is very expensive, we know that the weather can be very bad, we do it because we like it, there are choices that are made, with a mayor who might be bad and a mayor who might be great, it doesn’t matter.
“(Mamdani) it would be good for all of us, but you can just take it slow and flow to New York.”
Metro’s location is mixed
Across the greater New York City metro area, conditions are cooler but still strong.
Inventory is down 19% year over year. Average prices decreased by 1.3% while the pace of weekly transactions decreased by 24% compared to 2025.
Inventory remains approximately 80% below levels seen in 2015.
Within Manhattan, Katzen described a gentrification of luxury, with distinct patterns between properties of $6 million to $10 million and those over $15 million.
“I mean, I think the luxury market is free from the market,” he said. “They choose what they want to do, when they want to do it and at whatever cost. (Luxury) brands are also always very competitive, not many things. It’s like buying a stock. You buy in the West Village and someone buys in Midtown East, and everyone looks at where the performance has increased.”
Currently, both vendors are specifying solid pipelines.
Salman sums up his year in a nutshell.
“We had a record year and no one I know left,” he said. “No one tells me that they want to sell their house because they are leaving, it is to develop and continue to invest in the whole city.”
As the tax debate unfolds in Albany and City Hall, Manhattan’s upper class is showing rising prices, doubling sales and historically tight supply.
When wealthy residents prepare to leave, sellers say, they don’t see it in contracts – or in the closing room.
