Weekly pending home sales are back on the rise year over year as we head into spring

Weekly pending sales

Pending home sales data provides a week-to-week perspective, although results may be affected by holidays and temporary fluctuations, such as a major winter storm in January. We were showing year-over-year growth to start the year and the snow storm slowed things down.

In the last two weeks, we have had a good week-by-week data print. This week, we’re back to year-over-year growth again. Over the past few years, our weekly data for pending home sales has tended to be very positive with mortgage rates close to 6%.

Weekly pending sales for the past week for the past two years:

• 2026: 59,283
• 2025: 56,693

Mortgage application data

Shopping app data is a forward-looking data line: growth here leads to sales around 30-90 days, and we saw 8% year-over-year growth in this data line last week.

However, what I really appreciate is at least 12-14 weeks of good weekly growth. If you can find this in addition to year-over-year growth, we have something legit for sure. In 2026, we had every week to show positive year-over-year growth.

As you can see in the chart below, we have some seasonal flow in the weekly data.

Here’s 2026 so far:

• 2 positive results from week to week
• 3 negative prints per week
• 1 weekly flat print
• 3 weeks of double digit growth year over year
• 6 weeks of auspicious year during growing year

10-year yield and housing rates

In HousingWire’s forecast for 2026, I expect the following range:

• Loan rates are between 5.75% and 6.75%
• The 10-year yield fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.60%

Last week we had a lot of economic data and crazy headlines, but not much movement in the 10-year yield or mortgage rates.

After Friday’s Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, President Trump announced a plan to raise prices around the world to 15% collectively, but not much has happened with mortgage rates or 10-year yields, even with the Supreme Court issues, low GDP numbers and inflation running at 3% year-on-year.

Rates ended the week down 6.04%, according to Mortgage News Daily, and mortgage rate data from Polly showed a weekend rate of 6.26%.

Mortgage spreads

Mortgage spreads remain positive for housing in 2026, reducing mortgage rate volatility, and are close to normal levels.

Historically, mortgage spreads have varied from 1.60% to 1.80%. Last week’s spread closed at 1.94%.

If spreads match 2023 highs, mortgage rates could be 1.20 percentage points higher, at 7.21%. As spreads return to normal, mortgage rates may remain lower for longer than in previous years. In fact, we only have 20-34 upgrade points left in circulation.

Weekly housing inventory data

Home inventory increased this week as we near the traditional increase we see each year during the spring selling season. The rate of inventory growth has cooled since prices fell in June of 2025, but inventory remains at multi-year highs, holding prices down.

We went from 33% year-over-year growth to 9.38% last week.

• Weekly inventory changes: (Feb. 13-Feb. 20): Inventory increased from 690,547 to 700,259
• Same week last year: (Feb. 14-Feb. 21): Inventory increased from 637,984 to 640,221

New listing data

New listing data, such as weekly pending home sales, returned to year-over-year growth. Since many real estate sellers are also buyers, this is a good sign that both are back to strong year-over-year growth.

I hope that the new listing data ranges between 80,000 and 100,000 per week during peak seasons, as was the case from 2013-2019. For context, during the housing bubble crash, new listings ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for several years.

Here is the last week’s listing data for the past two years:

• 2026: 60,428
• 2025: 53,861

Discount percentages

In general, about one-third of homes are discounted before they sell, reflecting the volatile nature of the housing market. As the loan and property values ​​rise together, the percentage of the amortization increases.

However, prices are close to multi-year lows, so after a very long time, we are now seeing year-over-year price reduction percentage data. This should not be surprising given that demand has slowed and inventory growth has slowed.

The percentage of price cuts last week is now 1% lower than this time last year.

Last week’s price reduction percentage:

Next week: Cooked speeches, bond auctions and possible cloud market reactions

We have important economic data coming this week, but we also have interesting news, with big bond sales and the question of how the market will respond to Trump’s big tax news over the weekend.

We have some Fed speeches and a PPI inflation report this week, as well as home price index reports. The no-claims data comes out every Thursday, and the data still looks good here.

The ice impact initially sent claims of inactivity higher, but that data line has fallen recently as the ice impact melts without data. This is shaping up to be another very exciting week in the real estate market!