Talking about quantum computers no longer sounds like science fiction at crypto events. At a recent developer conference, ETH Denver, developers and security researchers turned their attention to a simple but unresolved question: what happens to Bitcoin when a powerful quantum machine comes online?
Reports have revealed that the new proposals are being folded into the network development process, laying the groundwork for defense before any real problem arises.
Quantum Computing: Why Hashing Isn’t a Major Fear
Hashing—used by miners and many other parts of the system—goes a little faster with quantum techniques. According to Lov Grover’s work, the quantum search method gives a square root speedup, which changes the safety margins but does not eliminate them.
In simple language: breaking hashes at scale would require large machines, perhaps unrealistic, under current models.
Signatures Face Real Risk
Reports say the biggest concern is signatures. “What we’re worried about in the next five years is signatures, and that goes through Shor,” Hunter Beast, co-author of BIP 360, said during the ETH Denver conference.
The math behind many bags today relies on elliptic curves, and Peter Shor has shown how a quantum machine can reverse that math.
That is how a public key can generate a private key if the appropriate hardware is available. A blockchain security company has been tracking addresses that have already disclosed their public keys, and the numbers are not small.
Blockchain cybersecurity company Project Eleven’s list flags millions of coins that, if an attacker has a large enough quantum device, could be compromised.
How Close Are We?
Ratings have been moving. Older papers include the resources needed for many billions of qubits. Recent research from groups like Iceberg Quantum suggests the number could be much lower, perhaps in the six-figure range.
However, qubit statistics tell only half the story. What matters is how many “reasonable” qubits you can use with acceptable error rates, how long the calculations take, and whether the machine can remain stable in that time.
Lab measures by large firms are also important; for example, Google reported progress in fixing bugs that many found encouraging. That doesn’t mean a hack is imminent, but it does change risk models.
Where the Factory Stands
Teams of report notes form to learn and build defenses. The Ethereum Foundation has a post-quantum group, and major exchanges and firms participate in discussions.
Coinbase has set up advisors, and its CEO, Brian Armstrong, said the problem can be dealt with through planning. “It can be solved”, he said.
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