Bitcoin Losses Have Reached Bear Market Levels

Data from Glassnode shows losses are now outpacing gains, a shift rarely seen outside of deep bear phases.

Bitcoin’s on-chain data illuminated a signal that historically came before long bear market conditions, and the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio confirmed a regime change in loss-dominated trading.

This move suggests that liquidity is disappearing in the market, forcing investors to see losses rather than book profits, a trend that was last seen during the deep crypto winters of 2018 and 2022.

A Key Metric Turns Below the Risk of a 1-Note Exposure

According to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the 90-day moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has officially dropped below 1. The metric, which compares the total amount of BTC sold at a profit versus those sold at a loss, shows that losses now outpace gains across the network.

“This confirms a complete revolution in the regime of excess losses,” Glassnode analysts noted in a February 24 update on X.

The company highlighted that historically, a breach below this threshold has lasted six months or more before regaining the 1 level, a normal recovery that indicates a “constructive recovery of capital in the markets.”

The reading represents the peak of a trend that began in early February, when the ratio hovered around 1.5, and in late January, when it stood at around 1.32.

In addition, the current on-chain structure shows confluence with the bottoms of the previous bear market. The contributor of CryptoQuant _OnChain noted that the indicators tied to the activity of the whale, especially the Unused Profit Ratios (UPR) of various groups of owners, have reached levels similar to May-June 2022, a period that precedes a significant decline before the final establishment at the end of that year.

Market Condition and Historical Similarities

The current pressure to sell on the side follows a dramatic disappointment in profit-taking that occurred in December 2025. Glassnode’s previous data showed that the 7-day average profit realized crashed from over $1 billion in Q4 2025 to just $183.8 million in December, which temporarily allowed Bitcoin to stabilize and rally above $96 in early January.

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However, that stability proved short-lived as major economic headwinds intensified, with Bitcoin trading at around $63,200 at the time of writing, down 3.6% in 24 hours and around 29% over the past month. The commodity is also about 50% below the peak reached in October 2025.

Analysts attribute the continued weakness to a combination of major factors rather than a structural deterioration in Bitcoin’s fundamentals. US President Donald Trump’s recent tax announcements, including the proposed increase in global import taxes, have condemned risky assets across traditional and crypto markets.

Despite the bearish signs, some analysts maintain that Bitcoin’s long-term cycle remains intact. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan recently characterized the current volatility as a necessary “refresher state” for financial evolution, arguing that maturing assets must exceed projected levels before reaching institutional stability.

However, author Ali Martinez warned that a three-day “death cross” could be confirmed in late February, which foreshadowed the final declines in 2014, 2018, and 2022, historically leading to further declines of 30% to 50%.