After closing the week below a key support level, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below the $65,000 support for the first time since the beginning of the February crash, reaching a two-week low of $64,152.
During this performance, some analysts warned that the crypto-flagship crypto could be in the “cup of bearish acceleration,” warning that another big risk could be there.
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Bitcoin Loses 200 Week EMA
On Monday, analyst Rekt Capital emphasized that Bitcoin produced a “historically significant” development after closing last week below the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently sitting “in the middle of a major confluence.”
Notably, the 200-week EMA coincides with the highs of BTC’s Post-Halving Re-accumulation Range, which is between $66,000-$71,000. Meanwhile, the Post-Halving Re-accumulation Range is decreasing, around $58,000-$60,000 levels, defining the broad structure of BTC’s current range.
In the past three weeks, the cryptocurrency has tried to develop a region with the highest demand in the region, which has been the largest supply area. However, this level has historically not been a reliable support for BTC’s price structure, the analyst asserted, noting that it previously served as 10-month resistance.
“In the current structure, we have seen three consecutive weeks of high sales volume in this area, with a limited response to buying on the side,” he explained.
In post, this imbalance led to a weekly close below the 200-week EMA, losing as support at this time. This suggests that a “continuation of Bearish Acceleration into its second wave” could soon follow.
The analyst warned that now that price has closed a week below this critical level, “there is a strong possibility that Bitcoin will push back below that EMA to try to turn it into new resistance.”
If the underside retest holds, the structure will move from protecting support to confirming resistance at this level. He warned that if that level starts to act as resistance, further declines will be more likely.
BTC Bottom Target $30,000
Rekt Capital also noted that BTC’s recent performance closely matches its price action in previous cycles. As detailed, in 2018 and 2022, weekly closes below the 200-week EMA served as the starting point for the structure of the second wave of bearish acceleration.
“Bitcoin will try to recover the level, change the resistance, and then disperse a little. That pattern is now trying to repeat itself,” he asserted.
Similarly, Ali Martinez pointed to the cryptocurrency’s historical performance, but on a three-day chart, confirming that this has been one of BTC’s most important periods from a macro perspective.
According to Martinez, market watchers should watch the upcoming interaction of the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), as a cross between these two indicators over a three-day period has historically preceded bear market declines.
Bitcoin is down about 50%-72% from its cyclical peaks of 2013, 2017, and 2021 before passing its death crosses in late 2014 and 2018, mid-2022. After crossing the 50-day and 200-day SMA, the flagship crypto-currency fell again by 2% 45%.
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Now, BTC is down more than 52% from its October 2025 peak and is approaching a possible death cross on the three-day chart at the end of February. “If history repeats itself – even partially – this could signal the beginning of the last leg down in this cycle,” the analyst warned.
Based on this, Martinez predicted that another 30%-50% correction from the current levels could follow, setting the goal of the cryptocurrency near the bases of $30,000-$40,000. “If the cross confirms, it is a standard that must be taken seriously,” he concluded.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
