Bitcoin Drifting Toward the Long-Term Holder Pain Point: Analysts

Bitcoin prices continue to weaken and approach pain levels for long-term holders, according to analysts.

As Bitcoin markets fail to improve, analysts have been looking at the behavior of different groups of investors in the market.

“One of the fundamental groups in this framework is the long-term holders (LTH), who are known to be very insensitive to short-term price fluctuations,” said CryptoQuant analyst ‘Darkfost’ on Tuesday.

Currently, long-term holders are sitting on an average profit of about 74%, but this profit amount continues to decrease as the price gets closer to the LTH cost base, which is currently about $38,900, they said.

Bear Market Breaks Below Cost Basis

The analyst looked at historical cycles, and noted that each bear market is characterized by a price break below this cost base, “creating the last phase of settlement marked by a loss of gains of about 20%.”

Only if this happens, and the markets start to recover and enter the bull phase, the analyst noted.

BTC Drifting Towards LTH Pain Point

“If we look at a historical example, each bear market has been characterized by a price break below this cost base, which triggered the last phase marked by a loss of gains of ~20%. – By @Darkfost_Coc pic.twitter.com/c50CHSzEBU

– CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 24, 2026

Glassnode reported on Tuesday that the 90-day moving average for the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has now fallen below 1, “confirming a full transition to the regime of excessive loss recognition.” The analysis confirms that of Darkfost: historically, these bearish conditions persist for at least 6 months before the currency returns to the markets.

Meanwhile, analyst James Check said that Bitcoin has almost printed five consecutive red candles for the month, “following significant cyclical volatility.”

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He also noted that the 1-week volatility saw a rise of more than 150%, “a level commonly seen in capitulation events,” the weekly RSI is one of the “most sold readings in Bitcoin history,” and about $70 billion of BTC has moved into new hands in the $60,000 to $70,000 range this year.

The supply of Bitcoin in losses recently hit 10 million coins, the fourth highest reading, noted analyst James Van Straten, who added that the circulating supply will reach 20 million BTC next week, with 50% lost.

“History suggests that’s enough money to destroy a bear market,” he said.

Bitcoin Sees Small Rebound

There was a small rebound during early trading in Asia on Wednesday morning, with BTC adding $2,000 to regain $66,000. However, the movement does not seem natural, and the bearish sentiment remains dominant.

Furthermore, this move has made another high low as $60,000 still serves as support for the lower low.