XRP Investors Show Signs of Fatigue Amid 15% Monthly Drop, Are Bulls Preparing for a Comeback?
XRP’s price action in February showed a market caught between fading momentum and cautious optimism. After weeks of strong decline, the token is trading near $1.37, down about 15% for the month, while the broader crypto sentiment remains sensitive to macroeconomic signals and changing liquidity conditions.
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Despite the volatile short-term structure, several market indicators suggest that traders are paying close attention to early signs of a potential recovery rather than abandoning the asset altogether.
XRP's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: XRPUSD on Tradingview
Market Fatigue Appears as Gains and Declines in Momentum
Recent exit data points to growing investor fatigue. Statistically, XRP’s Estimated Leverage Ratio has dropped to around 0.16, indicating that the most profitable traders have exited. This reduction in speculative positioning has reduced the risk of volatility resulting from sudden terminations.
The value structure supports that cautious attitude. XRP continues to trade below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating continued bearish pressure. Data tracked on CoinGlass shows declining open interest and cooling funding levels, suggesting fewer bets from short-term traders.
Meanwhile, whale activity has added to the uncertainty. More than 31 million XRP were recently transferred to Binance, raising concerns about potential selling pressure if those holdings hit the order books.
Three XRP Pre-Rally Signs Resurface
Despite the economic downturn, analysts note similarities to the conditions leading up to XRP’s recent rally in 2024, when prices rose following Donald Trump’s election victory. Three indicators have re-emerged: the rise in exchange rates, the strengthening of the USD currency in the production pools of the markets, and the decrease in the XRP currency.
Liquidity pressures historically reduce available supply during times of renewed demand, often increasing price movements. Current USD liquidity levels have fallen significantly from the end of the 2025 period, while XRP liquidity has fallen below the threshold seen before the previous breakout.
Similarly, XRP exchanges recorded $3.04 million in inflows on February 24, pushing cumulative deposits above $1.23 billion, a sign that institutional participation remains stable even during price weakness.
Macro Pressure and levels are key to watch
Macroeconomic factors continue to dampen sentiment. Stronger-than-expected US consumer confidence data dampened expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The CME FedWatch tool showed the likelihood of a June rate cut falling below 50%, limiting risk appetite in digital assets.
According to CoinMarketCap price estimates, XRP is rallying above the $1.30 support zone, while resistance levels remain at $1.50, $1.60, and $2.00. Analysts suggest that a sustained move above $1.60 will be needed to shift momentum favorably in favor of buyers.
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XRP appears to be changing from a market driven by energy to one driven by real local demand. Whether that change becomes the basis of a recovery or an extended consolidation phase will likely depend on the broader strength of the crypto market and renewed buying interest.
Cover image from ChatGPT, XRPUSD chart on Tradingview
