New analysis reveals how curbing immigration could ease Queensland’s housing crisis
The analysis shows three Queensland residents for every house built
Queensland’s hot house price growth could be almost halved if migration compared to home completions, new analysis shows.
The province now has the highest number of houses among large households, with almost three new residents for every house built, prompting calls to curb population growth to prevent spiraling costs.
Analyst Kent Lardner’s analysis of migration data shows a reduction in affordable stock as demand outstrips new supply across the country, while Brisbane’s median house price rose 15 per cent in the year to December to $1.075m with units up 20.6 per cent.
It comes as separate research by housing technology forum FoundIt predicts Brisbane’s median house price will rise by 6.1 per cent by 2026. That number would drop to 3 to 4 percent, if the migration was accompanied by the completion of the building.
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Two units under one roof for sale as an investment property in Leichhardt for $1,002,500.
Mr Lardner’s modeling puts Queensland’s average pressure at around 2.91 people added to new accommodation per year in 2025Q2, ahead of WA (2.89) and NSW (2.42).
The data shows housing completions in 2025 at around 7,900 to 8,200 per quarter after rising in December to 9,715. About two-thirds were single-family homes, with limited high-rises in a crowded market where rental demand is strong.
Migrant arrivals in Queensland are estimated at 106,000 in the last four quarters to 2025Q2, just under one-fifth of the country’s total.
Although the arrivals were not migrants, Mr Lardner said the statistics showed the level of immigration into a system that was slow to build.
A Riverview home sold for $805,500
“Australia can be immigration and growth, while insisting on dealing with basic economic realities,” he said.
“When demand grows faster than supply, the adjustment isn’t moral — it’s natural: higher prices, higher rents, and fewer affordable options.”
FoundIt’s analysis supported the imbalance: migration has trended upward since 2016 while housing completions are down from previous peaks, and price growth continues despite high interest rates.
“Affordable bands are struggling due to high demand,” said FoundIt founder Angus Ferguson.
“Unless one of two things happen: migration growth moderates, or the elimination of housing accelerates materially, the negative is strong.”
Across Greater Brisbane, only 3.2 per cent of properties were priced at or below $500,000, while 28.5 per cent were priced below $750,000, increasing pressure on properties below the entry and rental level.
FoundIt’s Brisbane risk map points to outdoor, working-class corridors as the most exposed:
Woodridge: home prices up 14 percent to $740,000 median; average household income $1,199 per week; affordability by 46 percent; purchase affordability over 12 years; 60 percent of households rent.
Kingston: up 10 percent to $737,000; affordability by 42 percent; purchase accessibility near 11 years.
Eagleby: up 10 percent to $745,000; affordability by 45 percent; buying ability to buy more than 11 years.
Riverview (Ipswich): up 19 percent to $680,000; rentability by 40 percent; average income of $1,262 per week.
Leichhardt–One Mile: up 18 per cent to $685,000; affordability by 37 percent; more than half of the households rent.
“These are…the gateways to affordability in Brisbane – family-friendly areas where the inner ring is out of reach,” Mr Ferguson said.
“If demand remains high and delivery remains delayed, these corridors will continue to rise in price, and the last valves for affordable Brisbane may close sooner than many expect.”
Mr Lardner said migration levels had yet to stabilize following a post-COVID surge. Nationally, the average pressure was about 1.74 people in a new place of residence just before the epidemic in 2019Q2, it reached about 3.82 after reopening in 2023Q3, and remained high near 2.42 (2025Q2).
Annual immigration arrivals of about 568,370 in the most recent year equate to about 3.27 new arrivals for each new settlement. Interest rates and credit conditions also played a role.
Mr Lardner pointed to Canada and New Zealand as examples of countries that have adopted “absorptive capacity” policies to coordinate domestic migration.
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Canada’s real home price index fell 7.1 percent between 2024Q1 and 2025Q3, about 26.9 percent below the 2022Q1 peak, after flagging targets to ease pressure on temporary residents.
In New Zealand, house prices fell by 4.7 percent between 2024Q2 and 2025Q3, sitting about 26.9 percent below the peak of 2021Q4, on the back of intensified migration after net inflows were labeled “unsustainable”.
“Australia doesn’t need to copy their politics. It needs to copy their willingness to align the social environment with the capacity to deliver housing – before the market continues to overshadow the quota,” Mr Lardner said.
FoundIt said these examples show that “when immigration growth slows, housing markets have not been affected — but growth has been limited, especially at the end of employment.”
