CMT-Certified Expert Flags Bitcoin Buy Signal, Is It Time to Go All in BTC?
An important long-term technical signal is still shining as Bitcoin approaches a key point on the upper-term charts. According to CMT certified analyst Tony Severino, the monthly SuperTrend indicator for BTCUSD has held support and is yet to show an active sell signal, or recent market forces lead to the debate over whether the cycle has changed. His chart highlighted an interesting development in a period of one month, there the structure has not yet been changed to guaranteed sales.
The monthly SuperTrend is still in buy mode
In his text on X, Severino is focused Bitcoin BTCUSD 1M chart and noted that the SuperTrend indicator holds support and maintains its active buy signal. The monthly period is very important because it filters out short-term noise and shows a clear view of the broader cycle.
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The accompanying chart shows Bitcoin trading around $66,300, with the SuperTrend level sitting just above $66,400. However, the index still prints in the green during the monthly timeframe, which means that the macro trend has not changed. A monthly close below the SuperTrend line is what always guarantees a sell signal, and that hasn’t happened yet.
The visual structure on the chart also shows how previous bear markets were characterized by a clear transition from green to red in the SuperTrend. So far, that change has not happened. Instead, Bitcoin price includes SuperTrend support.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @TonySeverinoCMT On X
Is the Bottom Near or Is More Patience Needed?
Severino added an important caveat. According to him, almost all bear markets first hold support for one or three months before finally turning into a sell signal. That observation shows that simply holding support does not automatically invalidate bearish risks. Although the analyst acknowledged that bear markets can remain supported before a failure, he noted that lows are often closed after such behavior.
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Bitcoin ended February 14.8% under its monthly openingbut managed to hold more than SuperTrend. That said, the monthly guaranteed split under SuperTrend will change the outlook. Until that happens, the indicator shows that Bitcoin it is still in a bullish structure.
Severino later became another post A separate analysis is discussed based on the quarterly Ichimoku index. In that analysis, he said that historical evidence and data suggest that Bitcoin could fall another 38% to 66% from current levels. A drop of that magnitude would mean a Bitcoin bear market low anywhere from $40,000 to $25,000.
Severino tracked down another post with the comment, “Sell, says SuperTrend.” At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades for $66,000, down 1.6% in the last 24 hours. The monthly structure is not fully broken, but the warnings indicate that it is a cryptocurrency you may not be out of danger yet.
The featured image was created with Dall.E, a chart from Tradingview.com
