A Long-Term Bitcoin Investor Shares Why It’s Important to Be Patient and Strategic This Time
The long-term Bitcoin bull urges investors to remain measured and strategic in the amidst the brutal challenges of the moment for the market.
In a detailed article posted on X, market analyst Caleb Franzen made it clear that being at a higher level over time does not mean ignoring it. the facts of the current price structure. He presented a framework built around bear market behavior, declining moving averages, and previously defined invalid levels.
Noticing the Classification Below Important Movement Rates
Franzen indicated the collapse of Bitcoin below the cloud’s 200-day moving average in November 2025, around $97,000, as a key turning point. According to him, every major Bitcoin bear market has started with a decisive break below this level.
The chart accompanying his post shows Bitcoin’s multi-year price action alongside long-term moving clouds. The red and blue bands show that price tends to trade above these moving averages during uptrends and below them during extended downtrends. Each previous bear market phase began with a loss of the 200-day MA structure, followed by prolonged weakness.
Franzen also highlighted the 200-week moving average cloud, another level that has historically served as a bear market magnet. At the time of the crash, that range was between $55,000 and $65,000. However, he noted that in 2022, Bitcoin is down almost 30% below the 200-week MA cloud before finally closing.
To prove that, there are obvious cases there Bitcoin could drop 20% to 33% below the 200-week MA band, setting targets between $37,000 and $44,000. Interestingly, this range coincides closely with the long-term owner’s lease price, which is currently near $41,700, another level that regularly pulls prices during bearish phases.
Using Historical Data Without Being Trapped By It
Bitcoin has experienced multiple pullbacks of 20% to 30% even in strong bull markets. In bear markets, that decline can go on for a long time, not just weeks or months. However, he stressed that preparing for a long-term downturn doesn’t mean it has to happen.
Despite presenting a basic case supported by historical metrics, Franzen was careful to make the point that history does not guarantee repeatability. His approach is based on probability of scale, not certainty.
It would be better to be prepared for multi-quarter declines and be pleasantly surprised by the strength rather than expecting a quick recovery and being caught off guard by a deep weakness. That logic will allow investors to avoid making emotional decisions.
There is also the matter of punching yourself with one result. Only waiting for a $40,000 reassessment could cost if Bitcoin it receives support from the front and resumes its uptrend. Interestingly, Franzen also set certain conditions that would change his situation.
If the break below the 200-day MA cloud was an official bearish indicator for November 2025, then a break back above this structure could act as a bullish signal. The retracement of the 2-day 200 MA cloud and the 55-week moving average cloud at $99,000 is a line in the sand that could turn constructive again.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
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