Bitcoin May Reach $180,000 This Year, But Only If This Scenario Plays Out: Amber Data
Bitcoin (BTC) started the week with a sharp rebound that briefly lifted the world’s largest cryptocurrency back to the $74,000 mark on Wednesday for the first time in over a month. However, as the week draws to a close, that momentum is over, as BTC retreats back to around $68,260.
Even with choppy prices, on-chain analytics firm Amber Data argues that the broader outlook for Bitcoin is still formative. In its latest market report, the company suggests that a new all-time high is still possible this year.
Post-completion reset
Amber data explains Bitcoin as it enters 2026 is in an unusual situation. The market, it says, was “de-risked” following the October liquidation event, which it says took a lot of energy out of the market.
In the report, they argued that open interest rates had risen to “intolerable levels,” underlying trading was tight, and bond prices showed an extended stance.
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As headlines surrounding President Donald Trump’s tax policies hit the market, the overstocked frame could not withstand the selling pressure. The result was a series of closeouts that wiped out weak hands and reset positions.
Although painful, the adjustment served a purpose. The rates have since normalized, the rate has largely been erased from the system, and so has Bitcoin market structure it looks healthy, Amber Data commented.
Yet the recovery remains fragile. Liquidity is still strained, and carry trades – once a major driver of activity – are no longer particularly attractive. From Amber Data’s perspective, the market is now structurally sound but lacks a clear catalyst to define its next big move.
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In its base case, which gives a 50% probability, Bitcoin trades between $90,000 and $120,000. This result observes an extended synthesis until a reasonable macro catalyst appears.
Under this “confusion in the middle”, conditions neither worsen nor improve. Volatility is depressing, enthusiasm is cooling, and both bullish and bearish exit expectations wrap predictions they get frustrated again and again.
Early signs supporting this scenario will include annualized base rates returning 8-10%, Bitcoin ETF income fluctuating, order book depth returning to pre-crash levels, and funding levels stabilizing in a positive environment.
25% Chance Bitcoin Breakout To $180,000
Amber Data offers a 25% chance for the most optimistic outcome, with Bitcoin rising between $120,000 and $180,000. In this case, institutional participation accelerates in parallel with independent acquisitions, creating a feedback loop of increasing flows.
Early confirmation signals will include weekly Bitcoin ETF income surpassing $1 billion, base rates are increasing by over 15% as demand increases, and new accumulation clusters are emerging from the HODL wave data, indicating new capital is coming in at scale.
Bear Case Target $60,000
On the other hand, Amber Data assigns a 20% probability to a bearish condition when Bitcoin trades between $60,000 and $80,000. This will happen if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate more than currently expected and global markets shift into risk-off mode.
Warning signs will include continued ETF outflows exceeding $1 billion per week, basis gains falling below 3%, widespread stablecoin redemptions showing massive flight, and a potential test of the ETF’s $80,000 cost base level.
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Finally, the company describes a situation of about 5% “volatility and determination”, where Bitcoin trades between $ 75,000 and $ 110,000 without a strong direction.
Indicators will include more flexibility financial valuesrepeated spikes and dips in open interest as positions are liquidated on both sides, and consistent ETF flows alternate between inflows and outflows without a clear pattern.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
