Spot Bitcoin ETFs listed in the US recorded their heaviest one-day outflow in nearly three weeks on Friday, with $349 million withdrawn from all 11 products combined, according to data from Farside.
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The withdrawal came as Bitcoin retreated back to $68,000 after briefly touching $74,000 earlier in the week – a result, based on on-chain data, that appears to have been the cause of a massive sell-off by major holders.
Large Owners Buy Low, Then Sell Fast
Crypto analytics platform Santiment tracked the behavior of wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoins – a group commonly referred to as whales – and found that they had been aggressively building positions between Feb. 23 and March 3, where prices held in the $62,900 to $69,600 range.
When Bitcoin fell to $74,000 on Wednesday, those same wallets began to unload. By Friday, about 66% of what they had accumulated in that 10-day window had been sold to the market.
Small investors are moving in another direction. Wallets holding less than 0.01 Bitcoin – the end of the market – have been adding to their positions as prices have dropped.
According to Santiment, that kind of divide between large and small owners historically points to worse things to come.
“When commodities are bought during whale sales, it usually indicates that the correction is not yet over,” the platform said in a report on Friday.
Fear Gauge Drops to Its Lowest Reading in Weeks
Bitcoin’s slide sent the Crypto Fear & Greed Index down six points out of 12 on Saturday, putting it deep into “Extreme Fear” territory. The index measures market sentiment among a number of factors including volatility, trading volume, and social media activity.
Some analysts say that Bitcoin could face further declines if buyers fail to defend the current price zone. A loss of support around $67,000–$68,000 could trigger a recent low to rally before a possible reversal.
The Economist’s Case for the $60K Floor
Not everyone sees the coming collapse. Economist Timothy Peterson pointed to the chart of Bitcoin Price to Metcalfe Value – a model that measures the price of Bitcoin against the estimated value of its network based on the activity of users – and said that the level of $ 60,000 held as the bottom of the entire previous cycle.
“About a 99.5% chance it will stay above $60k,” Peterson wrote on X.
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Bitcoin has already tested that level and this cycle, dropping to $60,000 on Feb. 6 during a broad pullback from the all-time high of $126,000 set in October.
Since then, it has managed to recover a bit, although Friday’s ETF exit and continued whale selling suggest that the market has yet to find a stable footing.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView
